As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

2018 08 01 2018.582 13 1.8 36 45
2018 08 02 2018.585 12 1.7 37 49
2018 08 03 2018.588 0 0.0 35 44
2018 08 04 2018.590 0 0.0 31 36
2018 08 05 2018.593 0 0.0 35 37
2018 08 06 2018.596 0 0.0 43 45
2018 08 07 2018.599 0 0.0 39 42
2018 08 08 2018.601 0 0.0 37 37
2018 08 09 2018.604 0 0.0 32 35
2018 08 10 2018.607 0 0.0 39 41
2018 08 11 2018.610 0 0.0 38 40
2018 08 12 2018.612 0 0.0 29 30
2018 08 13 2018.615 0 0.0 32 33
2018 08 14 2018.618 13 2.0 31 39
2018 08 15 2018.621 13 2.2 27 30
2018 08 16 2018.623 13 1.7 32 40
2018 08 17 2018.626 12 1.7 41 48
2018 08 18 2018.629 11 1.4 31 40
2018 08 19 2018.632 17 4.5 33 39
2018 08 20 2018.634 16 2.4 28 33
2018 08 21 2018.637 16 2.2 37 44
2018 08 22 2018.640 0 1.7 27 42
2018 08 23 2018.642 17 3.9 37 41
2018 08 24 2018.645 29 2.1 33 39
2018 08 25 2018.648 35 4.0 32 38
2018 08 26 2018.651 29 4.4 30 36
2018 08 27 2018.653 14 1.9 31 38
2018 08 28 2018.656 11 1.2 27 34
2018 08 29 2018.659 0 0.0 23 24
2018 08 30 2018.662 0 0.0 34 36
2018 08 31 2018.664 0 0.0 3 3

Text msg from Belgium's Royal Observatory for the month of August 2018
So far the average monthly mean is 8.7, which can be modified by Belgium on September 1, 2018.
August 31 is the third day of spotlessness, which means that August has had 15 spotless days.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Below is Belgium's Royal Observatory comment for today.

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been Low. No significant
flares have been recorded. There are currently no ARs on the solar disk,
although a new AR has reached the East solar limb, but appears quiet
. No
Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. The
greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past
24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours
with a low probability of C-class flares.

The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 350 and 400 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has been slowly increasing from
around 2nT to 6 nT. The Bz component has fluctuated around 0, ranging
between -1 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2
(NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Small
enhancements in geomagnetic activity may be experienced due to a region of
patchy coronal hole that was located near disk centre a few days ago.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

This new Active Region on the Eastern Limb appears to consist of white sunspots. Sometimes these active regions will develop dark sunspots, but during the solar minimum this rarely happens. So far, there are no dark sunspots.

The GOES X-ray flux shows relatively quiet solar activity, which has now dropped down into the A0 to A1 range, typical of this current solar minimum. cf: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

More stations have now reported during August 31, 2018, so the Belgium text has been modified throughout the day.
The EISN for August is now averaging 8.8, which is still within the deep minimum with 15 days of spotlessness.

Updated at 3:30 PM PDT

2018 08 01 2018.582 13 1.8 39 49
2018 08 02 2018.585 12 1.7 41 52
2018 08 03 2018.588 0 0.0 38 48
2018 08 04 2018.590 0 0.0 36 41
2018 08 05 2018.593 0 0.0 40 42
2018 08 06 2018.596 0 0.0 47 49
2018 08 07 2018.599 0 0.0 42 45
2018 08 08 2018.601 0 0.0 40 40
2018 08 09 2018.604 0 0.0 38 41
2018 08 10 2018.607 0 0.0 43 45
2018 08 11 2018.610 0 0.0 43 45
2018 08 12 2018.612 0 0.0 33 34
2018 08 13 2018.615 0 0.0 36 37
2018 08 14 2018.618 13 2.4 36 43
2018 08 15 2018.621 14 2.1 31 34
2018 08 16 2018.623 13 1.7 36 44
2018 08 17 2018.626 12 1.7 44 52
2018 08 18 2018.629 12 2.0 37 44
2018 08 19 2018.632 17 4.7 36 44
2018 08 20 2018.634 16 2.8 33 38
2018 08 21 2018.637 16 2.1 41 49
2018 08 22 2018.640 0 1.6 29 46
2018 08 23 2018.642 17 3.8 41 45
2018 08 24 2018.645 29 2.2 35 43
2018 08 25 2018.648 35 3.9 35 41
2018 08 26 2018.651 30 4.0 33 40
2018 08 27 2018.653 14 2.0 36 43
2018 08 28 2018.656 12 1.7 31 39
2018 08 29 2018.659 0 0.0 30 31
2018 08 30 2018.662 0 0.0 43 45
2018 08 31 2018.664 0 0.0 31 32

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: On Sept. 3rd, Earth will cross a fold in the heliospheric current sheet--a vast wavy structure in interplanetary space separating regions of opposite magnetic polarity. This is called a "solar sector boundary crossing," and it could trigger geomagnetic activity around Earth's poles. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras when the crossing occurs.

cf http://www.spaceweather.com

Now we can compare charts. In August 2018, there were 15 reported spotless days. However, Belgium dropped one.

August - September 2018 modified by Belgium has an average mean of 8.8.

Attachments
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 08-31-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 08-31-2018_EISNcurrent.png (43.93 KiB) Viewed 2501 times
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 09-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 09-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (38.61 KiB) Viewed 2505 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The sun has been spotless for six days now. However, there is now a equatorial coronal hole from which solar winds will buffet the earth causing more radio disturbances.

Notice the deep solar minimum sine waves. Follow the red line in the "basement" A0 range.

Attachments
09-03-2018_deep solar minimum sinusoidal waveform_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
09-03-2018_deep solar minimum sinusoidal waveform_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (11.9 KiB) Viewed 2153 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

An anomaly occurred very early this morning at 0801 UT time (01:01 AM PDT).
The duration of this very quick and impulsive A2.0 solar flare was less than a minute as it began at 0801, peaked at 0801, and ended at 0801.

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/events/events.txt

# Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2018 Sep 06

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7060 0801 0801 0801 G15 5 XRA 1-8A A2.0 3.8E-07

TWO NOAA WEBSITES ARE DOWN!
There has been no new information updates since September 5, 2018.
Furthermore, there have been no website redirects with the new updates.

One of my favorite NOAA websites to check on the size, area, and magnetic properties of sunspots:
http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu ... s/SRS.html
has been down with no new reports since September 5, 2018.
There was no daily information text message for September 6, 2018. Is this planned obsolescence?
Will another site be operational? I do remember reading that the websites on swpc would be phased out this year.

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/alerts/current_month.html
is down with no new information since September 5.

Are we now flying blind?

STILL FUNCTIONING:

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/indices/events/
Still functioning as I printed the latest solar flares above.

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/alerts/warn ... eline.html
Still functioning.
This gives us "Alerts and Warnings Timeline" with alerts in the past three days, the current day, and three days in the future.
This site is also extremely important as it gives us alerts for solar events, communication disruptions, and grid threats.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
Still functioning
This website is extremely important as it posts solar events as they happen, which gives us a seven minute window to go inside and avoid extreme solar flares.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. A small sunspot region
(NOAA 2721) developed early on 08 September near the disk's center.
No
earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels. A trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH) has nearly
finished its transit over the Central Meridian.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind speed declined from 520 to 360 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz varied between
-3 and +3 nT, with a brief excursion to +6 nT around 07:30UT. The
interplanetary magnetic field was directed towards the Sun (negative
sector), turning into a positive sector after 10UT.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed, with Kp recording an isolated
unsettled episode during the 06-09UT interval. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions are expected with a chance on an unsettled episode until the
arrival of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and wind stream from
the positive polarity CH, most likely on 11 September.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 015, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

If you visit, The Sun Today, you can see this new active region AR2721,
which suddenly appeared in the Northern-equatorial area of the sun,
is peppered with 16 small sunspots, is geo-centered, and covers a large area.

Below is a link to NASA's yellow (continuum) image of the sun:
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

If I posted this image here, AR2721 is so tiny that you would not be able to see it.

Not surprising during this time of a deep solar minimum, the GOES X-ray flux
appears to be undisturbed as if AR2721 is not even there.
cf. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR 2721 appears to be in decay as it nears the Western limb of the solar disc.

You can barely see this active region at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

From the Royal Observatory in Belgium:

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. Small and inactive sunspot
region NOAA 2721 is still present on the solar disk. No earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraphic
imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels. A
trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH) has finished its
transit over the Central Meridian.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind speed varied between 360 and 430 km/s, ending the period near
370 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz varied mostly between -4 and +3 nT, ending the period
at +6 nT. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed. Mostly quiet
geomagnetic conditions are expected with a chance on an unsettled episode
until the arrival of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and wind
stream from the positive polarity CH, late on 10 or on 11 September. This
may result in minor storming conditions.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 015, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

It is interesting that AR2712 is located on the rim of the massive equatorial coronal hole.

You can see it here: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0193.jpg

lsolar image_09-09-2018_AR2721 at edge of  equatorial coronal hole.jpg
lsolar image_09-09-2018_AR2721 at edge of equatorial coronal hole.jpg (130.27 KiB) Viewed 2016 times

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