As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Fast growing Beta AR2720 has more than tripled in size.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 238 Issued at 0030Z on 26 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2719 S06W36 133 0030 Cro 05 04 Beta
2720 N08W39 136 0100 Dao 06 07 Beta

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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To the North, AR2720 appears to be slowly decaying. To the South, AR2719 is also decaying and most likely will soon be gone.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Beta 2720 is slowly decaying and the area it occupied has likewise decreased.

AR2719 might decay to an H-alpha plage sometime during the next few hours. It is barely visible now at 0515 UT Monday. On the other hand, AR2719 did resurrect from being an inactive H-alpha plage to a Beta a few days ago, and it could resurrect again as it approaches the Western limb.

Sometimes as an active region approaches the Western limb, it becomes more active. If it does emit a significant flare at the Western limb, which is geo-directive, that flare could strike the earth. Both these active regions are approaching that limb.

Per NOAA:

SRS Number 239 Issued at 0030Z on 27 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2719 S06W53 136 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2720 N08W55 138 0060 Cso 08 05 Beta

The GOES X-ray flux now shows solar activity in the A0 to A1 levels, which is normal during a solar minimum.
Cf. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Frin http://www.spaceweather.com

REVERSE POLARITY SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR2720 is not only large, but also strange. Its magnetic polarity is reversed. The North and South ends of its enormous magnetic field are backwards compared to the norm for sunspots in the current solar cycle, decaying Solar Cycle 24. What does this mean? AR2720 may be the first big sunspot of the next solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, popping up now in the middle of solar minimum. Solar cycles always mix together at their boundaries. The slow transition between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 appears to be underway.


How long will this slow transition last?
One to two more years according to predictions issued by Belgium. Or it could be three to four more years or even longer.

How high will the next solar maximum peak be?
Per Belgium's research, we just do not know. Looking at the data in the recent past does not provide any answers or provide any clues.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2720 is now quickly decaying. It is now an alpha, whereas AR2719 has decayed to an H-alpha plage (the second time it has done so. Within the next day or two, both of these active regions will depart for a two week transit around the back side of the sun.

From NOAA below:

SRS Number 240 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2720 N08W68 137 0050 Hsx 06 02 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
2719 S06W66 136

From Belgium's Royal Observatory: The EISN for today is 14. I only listed the days since August 14. The average mean is approaching 10.

2018 08 14 2018.618 12 2.0 30 37
2018 08 15 2018.621 13 2.0 25 29
2018 08 16 2018.623 13 1.7 31 38
2018 08 17 2018.626 12 1.6 39 46
2018 08 18 2018.629 11 1.3 30 39
2018 08 19 2018.632 17 4.6 31 37
2018 08 20 2018.634 16 2.4 28 33
2018 08 21 2018.637 16 2.2 35 42
2018 08 22 2018.640 0 0.0 26 41
2018 08 23 2018.642 17 3.9 36 40
2018 08 24 2018.645 29 2.1 33 38
2018 08 25 2018.648 34 3.8 29 35
2018 08 26 2018.651 30 4.8 28 33
2018 08 27 2018.653 14 2.0 24 31

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Belgium's Royal Observatory comments for today, Tuesday, August 28, 2018.

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been Low. No significant
flares have been recorded. There are currently two ARs visible on the solar
disk (2719 and 2720), but both have only shown activity at the B-class
level. These regions have reached the West limb. There is currently a large
filament located in the North, but appears stable. No Earth directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. The greater than 10MeV
proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There is
currently a region of patchy coronal hole located in central latitudes.
Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low
probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 530 and 630 km/s over the past
24 hours
, peaking at 17:00 yesterday (27-Aug-2018).

The total magnetic
field strength has fluctuated around 5 nT. The Bz component has fluctuated
around 0, ranging between -15 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged
between Kp index 3-6 (NOAA) and local K index 2-5 (Dourbes) over the past
24 hours. The geomagnetic conditions reached storm levels on a planetary
level due to the jump in the solar wind speed combined with a Southward
orientation of the magnetic field, most likely caused by a High Speed
Stream (HSS), probably from the Northern polar coronal hole, which has a
similar polarity. Further small enhancements may be experienced due to a
region of patchy coronal hole located near disk centre which may enhance
solar wind speeds slightly over the next couple of days. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to active.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From NOAA: AR2720 is no longer a Beta. Instead it has decayed into an alpha with a much smaller area.
It should depart this side of the sun sometime on Wednesday.
When viewing NASA's solar images at The Sun Today, I did not see any visible dark sunspots.

cf: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

GOES X-ray flux shows declining solar activity down in the A1 to A2 range.

SRS Number 241 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2720 N07W83 139 0010 Axx 04 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
2719 S06W81 138
II. Regions Due to Return 29 Aug to 31 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

NOAA response for August 30, 2018 is below:

[quote]Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 242 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
2720 N07W98 142[/quote

Belgium's EISN plot has shown zero sunspots for August 29 and August 30, although it is still too early to tell as only one astronomical station has reported in. The current solar images are unremarkable, so spotlessness is likely to continue for several more days. However, one never knows as the sun is unpredictable with active regions suddenly appearing and disappearing. See: http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

Thus, the average mean for August 2018 will most likely be around 10 or less. We will know Belgium's determination of the average mean for August 2018 by Saturday morning, September 1, 2018.

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