As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Another update from Belgium's EISN plot: 23 astronomers have filed reports of which 9 have been declared to be outliers, so only 14 of those reports have been accepted. The estimated international sunspot number remains at zero. cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

2018 07 21 2018.552 0 0.0 14 23

http://www.spaceweather.com has spotted this sunspot too with the remark:
"A tiny sunspot is struggling to emerge at the circled location. If it succeeds, it would bring an end to a string of 24 spotless days. Credit: SDO/HMI"
Image

Checking another parameter: GOES X-ray Flux
Consistent with reports of a possible new sunspot, solar activity has gradually increased from A1 to A2 flaring to A2 to A3 levels. Also the blue line at the bottom of the plot in the 0.5 to 4.0 A range have shown greater disturbances.
cf. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Belgium's Royal Observatory has issued their daily comment in which this new sunspot is not mentioned at all. However, this new sunspot is adjacent to the equatorial coronal hole, which is extensive in size reaching down to the southern polar coronal hole.

COMMENT: Solar activity is extremely low without any flaring activity
reported during last 24 hours. We do not expect any change of the activity
in the coming hours.

Coronagraph images do not show signatures of the Earth directed CMEs, and
the solar protons are at the background level.

Solar wind speed has increased and it presently amounts about 510 km/s. The
maximum solar wind speed (about 550 km/s), during last 24 hours was reached
at about 11:20 UT today. The interplanetary magnetic filed magnitude is
presently about 8 nT.

The patchy but rather extended equatorial coronal hole (possibly even
connected with the southern polar coronal hole), has reached central
meridian early this morning. The associated fast solar wind is expected at
the Earth in the mid of the day on July 24.
The geomagnetic conditions are
presently unsettled to quiet and we expect such a geomagnetic conditions to
persist in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

UPDATE at 12:50 PM PDT (1950 UT): Below is a solar image of the two large coronal holes. At the tip of the equatorial coronal hole is a tiny sunspot that appears to be fading away.

Attachments
solar image_07-21-2018_large equatorial and south pole coronal holes.jpg
solar image_07-21-2018_large equatorial and south pole coronal holes.jpg (132.79 KiB) Viewed 628 times

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Luke
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Luke »

The solar probe that I mentioned a while back is scheduled to launch on August 6. If it is successful, it will orbit about 4 million miles from the sun by the latter part of 2024. Hopefully everything will work, and it will send us some serious measuring.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Luke wrote:

The solar probe that I mentioned a while back is scheduled to launch on August 6. If it is successful, it will orbit about 4 million miles from the sun by the latter part of 2024. Hopefully everything will work, and it will send us some serious measuring.

Yes.

NOAA has just issued its alert: We do have a tiny active are, an alpha, that is now geo-centered. How long will it last? It already appears to be fading from the size it was a few hours ago. In addition, the GOES X-Ray Flux shows less solar activity. Belgium's EISN chart shows zero sunspots for both 7/21 and 7/22.

Please see the solar image at: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Issued: 2018 Jul 22 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 203 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Jul 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2716 N16W00 199 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Belgium's Royal Observatory has issued this new comment below acknowledging AR2716, but its astronomers in general deny its presence. Furthermore, all current NASA photos of the sun from The Sun Today show an absence of any sunspots. See: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0193.jpg Nevertheless, Spaceweather still shows 11 sunspots, but tonight I expect spaceweather.com to downgrade that figure to zero.

High solar winds starting on July 24, 2018 could disrupt earth communications and cause other problems. . See the comments below.

COMMENT: Solar activity remains to be low despite the appearance of the new
active region NOAA AR 2716, which emerged during last 24 hours and is
presently situated close to the center of the solar disc
. We expect such a
low flaring activity (without C-class flares), to persist in the coming
hours.

Coronagraph images do not show signatures of the Earth directed CMEs, and
the solar protons are at the background level.

Solar wind speed presently amounts about 500 km/s. The maximum solar wind
speed (about 580 km/s), during last 24 hours was reached at about 16:00 UT
on July 21. The interplanetary magnetic filed magnitude is presently about
4 nT.

The fast solar wind, associated with extended equatorial coronal hole which
reached central meridian in the early morning of July 21, is expected at
the Earth in the mid of the day on July 24. The arrival of the fast flow
might induce active geomagnetic conditions late on July 24.

The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled and we expect
such a geomagnetic conditions to persist in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 21 STATIONS
.

Currently the plot shows an EISN of zero. Because of the five days of uncertainty among international astronomers, at the end of this month on August 1, 2018, Belgium will most likely modify the plot and give a record breaking ISN of approximately 1.5 for July 2018. Thus, July 2018 could have the lowest ISN of this solar minimum as the lowest record is March 2018, with an ISN of 2.5. Even if another sunspot area develops before July 31, it most likely will fade quickly as did AR2716, so the ISN for July 2018 probably will not be higher than 2.4.

My comments have been added in bold italics to Belgium's text message below. The five days and their results have been bolded.

2018 07 01 2018.497 0 0.0 42 44
2018 07 02 2018.500 0 0.0 46 48
2018 07 03 2018.503 0 0.0 44 47
2018 07 04 2018.505 0 0.0 41 43
2018 07 05 2018.508 0 0.0 38 39
2018 07 06 2018.511 0 0.0 44 46
2018 07 07 2018.514 0 0.0 42 43
2018 07 08 2018.516 0 0.0 39 40
2018 07 09 2018.519 0 0.0 41 43
2018 07 10 2018.522 0 0.0 32 34
2018 07 11 2018.525 0 0.0 38 41
2018 07 12 2018.527 0 0.0 37 45 - - 82 % of astronomers agree with 8 outliers omitted
2018 07 13 2018.530 0 3.9 32 45 - - 71 % of astronomers agree with a deviation of 3.9 and with 13 outliers omitted
2018 07 14 2018.533 0 0.0 26 38 - - 68 % of astronomers agree with 12 outliers omitted
2018 07 15 2018.536 0 0.0 24 37 - - 65 % of astronomers agree with 13 outliers omitted

2018 07 16 2018.538 0 0.0 35 39
2018 07 17 2018.541 0 0.0 33 36
2018 07 18 2018.544 0 0.0 30 32
2018 07 19 2018.547 0 0.0 34 35
2018 07 20 2018.549 0 0.0 31 34
2018 07 21 2018.552 0 2.1 17 29 - - 59 % of astronomers agree with a deviation of 2.1 and with 12 outliers omitted
2018 07 22 2018.555 0 0.0 26 28

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2716 has now decayed into an H-alpha-plage per NOAA. Meanwhile, The Sun Today, shows a spotless sun, and the GOES X-ray flux has now been creeping down into the A0.0 levels of solar doldrums.

Issued: 2018 Jul 23 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 204 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Jul 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
2716 N16W14 200
II. Regions Due to Return 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From http://www.spaceweather.com

SPOTLESS SUN: Over the weekend, a small sunspot (AR2716) ended a 24-day string of blank suns. The interruption was brief. After only one day, the sunspot has dissolved and the spotless days counter is ticking again: 112 days so far in 2018 without sunspots. It's been 9 years since sunspots were this scarce, a sign that solar minimum has arrived

The GOES x-ray flux is a great tool indicating any activity from the sun including Active Regions, hyderflares, etc. Look carefully below.
July 21 - AR2716 briefly appears
July 22 - AR2716 has faded away
July 23 - back to a deep solar minimum profile with solar activity in the A0.0 to A1.0 range

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07-23-2018_AR2716 appeared on 07-21-2018_disappeared on 07-22-2018_goes-xray-flux.gif
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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today, GOES X-ray flux plot shows a typical deep solar minimum profile when there are no sunspots.

Go visit https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
Notice that the red plot is in the mid A0 to A1 range. This is the deepest it has been during this solar minimum, but it could get even lower. Stay tuned.

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