As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Non-political secular news and anything else (within the boundaries of Christian morality and good taste) that is not on-topic in any other section. Any politically charged material must be posted in the private Political and Social Issues forum; please PM admin for access. All Forum Rules apply. No polemics. No heated discussions. No name-calling.
Post Reply
User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

After 25 days without a single sunspot, the longest stretch of spotlessness, on June 24, there appeared two ephemeral active regions: 2742 and 2743. Both of these active regions were from the old solar cycle 24 as seen by their +/- polarity.

While AR2742 appears to have decayed almost immediately as soon as it appeared, AR2743 hung on for one to two more days.

Today, June 26, it appears that both have vanished. We will know more in a few hours. View: https://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Something seems to be coming around the East limb of the sun. We will know in a day or two, but most likely it is only a plage, the shell of a former active region. These plages are common during a solar minimum.

Jun 2019 – stats from Astronomers - my comments follow

2019 06 01 2019.415 0 0.0 38 41 + 2 previous days w/o spots
2019 06 02 2019.418 0 0.0 35 39
2019 06 03 2019.421 0 0.0 35 37
2019 06 04 2019.423 0 0.0 34 36
2019 06 05 2019.426 0 0.0 30 32
2019 06 06 2019.429 0 0.0 33 35
2019 06 07 2019.432 0 0.0 31 32
2019 06 08 2019.434 0 0.0 32 33
2019 06 09 2019.437 0 0.0 29 31
2019 06 10 2019.440 0 0.0 34 35
2019 06 11 2019.442 0 0.0 37 41
2019 06 12 2019.445 0 0.0 31 33
2019 06 13 2019.448 0 0.0 36 38
2019 06 14 2019.451 0 0.0 33 36
2019 06 15 2019.453 0 0.0 32 34
2019 06 16 2019.456 0 0.0 35 37
2019 06 17 2019.459 0 0.0 34 36
2019 06 18 2019.462 0 0.0 33 35
2019 06 19 2019.464 0 0.0 32 35
2019 06 20 2019.467 0 0.0 31 33
2019 06 21 2019.470 0 0.0 36 38
2019 06 22 2019.473 0 0.0 30 33
2019 06 23 2019.475 0 0.0 30 36 – 6 outliers; spot @ 2215 UT
2019 06 24 2019.478 11 7.3 31 37 – very hi std; 6 outliers
2019 06 25 2019.481 12 1.5 25 35 – 10 outliers

Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
For June 24 = 11 with a standard deviation of 7.3 (very high) and 6 outliers
For June 25 = 12 with a standard deviation of 1.5 (low) but with 10 outliers

Outliers are stats that do not fit the curve, and therefore are deleted.
When there are 5 outliers or more, that is significant, especially with only 30 observers,
as the deletion of these outliers may cause significant errors with such a small number
of astronomical stations reporting.

Cloudy days impede astronomical observations. If the astronomers are all from the same
area, then that will also skew the results. Hence some of those stations will have to have
their data deleted. For example, Arizona is known for its sunny days, good conditions for
observing the sun. If 10 of the 30 observation stations are from Arizona on a given day,
then that would not be a very good sampling as a worldwide sampling is needed for
scientific accuracy.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Luke
Member
Posts: 173
Joined: Sun 17 January 2016 10:25 pm
Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: Greek Orthodox Metropolis of San Francisco

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Luke »

Argentina and Chile have a solar eclipse today.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Yes, do you know anyone from those two countries?

While the solar disc remains spotless, there is a plage (a white area) that keeps developing a sunspot or two only to have them fade away.

For June 2019, Belgium has decided that only four days had sunspots, ones that did not last very long nor did these ephemeral active regions 2742 and 2743 issue any significant solar flares. Thus, for June, there were 26 spotless days. Significantly, a spotless streak of 26 days lasted from May 29 to June 23, This was the longest stretch for this solar minimum.

The ISN for June 2019 is 1.2.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The polarity of solar cycle 24 sunspots is a +/- , which can be seen on Nov. 19, 2019 with AR2727.
This can be seen at http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2018

Image

The new solar cycle 25 will show a reverse polarity of -/+ for Northern latitude active regions.
However, Southern latitude active regions will show a polarity of +/-. An ephemeral active region
appeared on July 1, 2019 with a reverse polarity (+/-) of the new solar cycle 25.
Only a few active regions, usually ephemeral ones, have shown this configuration, but none lately.
We will see more and more active regions with this configuration as solar cycle 25 manifests itself
and comes to a peak at the next solar maximum.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Luke
Member
Posts: 173
Joined: Sun 17 January 2016 10:25 pm
Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: Greek Orthodox Metropolis of San Francisco

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Luke »

No. I know nobody from Chile or Argentina. A stargazer in California, who I follow on Facebook, flew to Chile.

User avatar
Luke
Member
Posts: 173
Joined: Sun 17 January 2016 10:25 pm
Faith: Orthodox
Jurisdiction: Greek Orthodox Metropolis of San Francisco

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Luke »

This link from Spaceweather shows an aurora from the stratosphere: http://spaceweather.com/images2019/11ju ... dj6oq0l8k3

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Please forgive me for not keeping this thread updated.
With all the technical down times, it has been difficult.
Now that this website has been fixed, I can once again start reporting data from Belgium and NASA scientists.

Here is a very important piece from http://www.spaceweather.com
THE EERIE CALMING OF EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: Solar Minimum is having a calming effect on Earth's magnetic field. The deepening quiet is shown in these geomagnetic data, taken by Stuart Green of Preston, Lancashire, UK, during each of the past 3 summers:

Image

"I've plotted the changing levels of geomagnetic activity for the months of May, June and July (between the equinoxes) for the years 2017, 2018 and 2019," explains Green, who operates a research-grade magnetometer buried in his backyard. "The trend is clearly downward, with less frequent and intense storms in 2019, as the sun continues deeper into Solar Minimum."

His data show why minor G1-class geomagnetic storms, which would rarely be mentioned during Solar Maximum, are suddenly noteworthy. Any magnetic storm is news at this point in the solar cycle.

The quiet won't last forever, though. A panel led by experts from NOAA and NASA predict that the solar cycle will bottom out in late 2019 with a bounce back to higher levels of activity beginning sometime in 2020. Meanwhile, G1 is a significant magnetic storm.
By comparing the last solar minimum of 2004 to 2011, I can see that we are entering into a deeper level during this time, and that most likely by late 2019 we will have reached the bottom of the solar minimum. Notice that this graph charts sunspots.

Image

In Belgium's Royal Observatory graph below, which charts spotless days, we can see from the red bars that we are reaching a second solar minimum peak as of June 2019 (26 spotless days). The first peak had been reached in July 2018 with 27 spotless days. The July 2019 data has not been posted yet, but it was also high (27 spotless days). August 2019 might be totally spotless. That would give us 31 spotless days. Once this second peak is reached, perhaps sometime in the Autumn of 2019 or Winter 2020, then we will probably see a gradual decline in spotless days, and then progress into the next solar maximum peak of solar cycle 25.

Image

When scientists compare the solar cycle and look at sunspots, there is typically a double peak. Interesting, when scientists compare the solar cycle and look at spotless days, there is also a double peak with the second peak typically being higher than the first peak.

Reference: http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

Post Reply