As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The new active region is now growing rapidly.

Stay tuned as this active region is generating a lot of Solar Class A flares at the higher levels.
Within the next 24 hours it could generate a B or even a C-class solar flare.

I just checked the HMI Magnetogram at The Sun Today.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg

Double click the image, and you might be able to spot this active region
approaching the center of the solar disc. It has the +/- magnetic polarity
shown in green/yellow of Solar Cycle 24.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The new active region AR2728 generated a B1.1 solar flare at 0213 UT on Nov. 24, 2018 according to Belgium, but NASA did not acknowledge this solar flare in their GOES-X Ray Flux. Nevertheless, NOAA's website did list this B1.1 at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

# Edited Events for 2018 Nov 24
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7460 0210 0213 0215 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.1 1.7E-05 2728

Today's estimated International Sunspot Number averages seven per Belgium's EISN plot at http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

Below is the daily comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: A single minor B1.1 flare occurred from a new bipolar sunspot
group emerging from around midnight near N05E10.

Chances for C-class flaring remain very low.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph images.

Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

A small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole crossed central meridian
overnight.

Solar wind was nominal with solar wind speed in the 320-370 km/s range and
total magnetic field below 5nT. The magnetic field phi angle is in the
negative sector.

Nominal conditions are expected over the next days with from November 26
minor enhancements possible due to the relatively small equatorial coronal
hole.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-1) and are
expected to remain so, with from November 26 unsettled conditions possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 007, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Today's comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory

COMMENT: X-ray flux remained below B level.
The newly numbered region (NOAA 2728) appears inactive.
Chances for C-class flaring remain very low.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph images.

Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind was nominal with solar wind speed in the 330-380 km/s range and
total magnetic field below 6nT. The magnetic field phi angle was somewhat
variable but mainly in the negative sector.
Nominal conditions are expected over the next days with minor enhancements
possible due to the relatively small equatorial coronal hole.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2) and are
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

This evening (Nov. 26 by UT Time) shows that AR2728 is showing signs of decay. However, the GOES X-ray flux is increasing.
One astronomical station shows zero sunspots, but viewing NASA's images shows that AR2728 is still hanging on.
Thus, AR2728 might continue to decay, then increase, only to decay again.
Such is the ephemeral nature of active regions in this solar minimum.
The current EISN mean for November 2018 will probably be between a 5.1 and 6. See text message below from Belgium.

References:
Belgium's Daily Comment - http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/
GOES X-ray Flux - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
The Sun Today - views of the sun - http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Below is the Text Msg from Belgium:

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 11 01 2018.834 0 0.0 21 22
2018 11 02 2018.837 0 0.0 36 36
2018 11 03 2018.840 0 0.0 32 32
2018 11 04 2018.842 0 0.0 29 31
2018 11 05 2018.845 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 06 2018.848 0 0.0 28 29
2018 11 07 2018.851 0 0.0 28 28
2018 11 08 2018.853 0 3.0 24 38
2018 11 09 2018.856 11 1.4 18 27
2018 11 10 2018.859 0 0.0 8 13
2018 11 11 2018.862 0 0.0 21 24
2018 11 12 2018.864 16 1.7 18 20
2018 11 13 2018.867 11 1.1 29 34
2018 11 14 2018.870 12 1.7 33 41
2018 11 15 2018.873 14 1.6 32 35
2018 11 16 2018.875 15 2.6 18 21
2018 11 17 2018.878 16 1.7 33 37
2018 11 18 2018.881 15 2.0 24 27
2018 11 19 2018.884 13 1.8 10 14
2018 11 20 2018.886 0 0.0 12 12
2018 11 21 2018.889 0 0.0 28 28
2018 11 22 2018.892 0 0.0 13 13
2018 11 23 2018.895 0 0.0 16 17
2018 11 24 2018.897 10 8.6 8 9
2018 11 25 2018.900 13 1.3 9 12
2018 11 26 2018.903 0 0.0 1 1

Reference: http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Solar activity is low in the A0 to A1 range according to the GOES X-ray flux.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
This is normal during solar minimums. Nothing to worry about.

There are no active regions on the face of the sun.
This is normal during solar minimums. For more information view: The Sun Today
http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

According to http://www.spaceweather.com, there will be an incoming solar G1-class
geomagnetic storm generated by solar winds. Again this is normal during solar minimums.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED: NOAA forecasters say there is a 70% chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Dec. 1st when a stream of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere. This is a long-lasting hole that has lashed Earth with solar wind about once a month since July. The last time it happened on Nov. 4th, auroras were sighted in US states including Wyoming, Montana, Iowa, Washington, North Dakota and, of course, Alaska. It could happen again this weekend. Free: Aurora Alerts.

Below is the latest text message from the Royal Observatory in Belgium (SIDC)
for Nov. 30, 2018. See: http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

For any newcomers, this text is generated automatically upon response by
an international team of astronomers. If sunspots reported appear to be too
high or low, then the computer system will delete those station reports.

My comments have been added in italics since Belgium will likely adjust
these figures whenever there is a high standard deviation (std) and a large
number of outliers. These figures are adjusted within three months once again
after a definitive study is done by Belgium.

EISN = Estimated International Sunspot Number
std = Standard Deviation
Stations reporting (str) - stations accepted (st) = outliers

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str

2018 11 01 2018.834 0 0.0 21 22
2018 11 02 2018.837 0 0.0 37 37
2018 11 03 2018.840 0 0.0 33 33
2018 11 04 2018.842 0 0.0 30 32
2018 11 05 2018.845 0 0.0 32 32
2018 11 06 2018.848 0 0.0 29 30
2018 11 07 2018.851 0 0.0 28 28
2018 11 08 2018.853 0 4.0 27 39 - likely to show 4 or more sunspots with an std of 4 and 12 outliers
2018 11 09 2018.856 11 1.4 19 28 - likely to change with an std of 1.4 and 9 outliers.
2018 11 10 2018.859 0 0.0 9 14 - likely to change as there are 5 outliers
2018 11 11 2018.862 0 0.0 21 25
2018 11 12 2018.864 16 1.7 18 21
2018 11 13 2018.867 12 1.1 30 35
2018 11 14 2018.870 12 1.7 33 41 - likely to change with an std of 1.7 and 8 outliers
2018 11 15 2018.873 14 1.6 33 36
2018 11 16 2018.875 15 2.6 19 22
2018 11 17 2018.878 16 1.7 34 38
2018 11 18 2018.881 15 2.2 25 28
2018 11 19 2018.884 13 1.8 10 14
2018 11 20 2018.886 0 0.0 13 13
2018 11 21 2018.889 0 0.0 29 29
2018 11 22 2018.892 0 0.0 14 14
2018 11 23 2018.895 0 0.0 18 19
2018 11 24 2018.897 11 8.3 10 11
2018 11 25 2018.900 14 1.4 12 15
2018 11 26 2018.903 0 0.0 9 15 - likely to change with 6 outliers
2018 11 27 2018.905 0 0.0 17 17
2018 11 28 2018.908 0 0.0 20 20
2018 11 29 2018.911 0 0.0 18 18
2018 11 30 2018.914 0 0.0 2 2

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Solar activity as seen by the GOES X-ray Flux is extremely low. It is currently in the A0 range.

The solar image is spotless with a huge coronal hole. Please see: http://www.spaceweather.com/
for more information. Also see: http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Below is the latest EISN plot text message from Belgium's Royal Observatory
Tomorrow, Belgium will make their temporary changes in this plot.
The definitive plot will not be available for approximately another three months.

For more information about the quarterly definitive values,
please click: http://www.sidc.be/silso/sunspotbulletin
On the right, click: SIDC-News: quarterly definitive values providing the month and year desired.

For your convenience, I have provided information that has been bolded or italicized below.

Date . . . . . . . . . EISN std st str
2018 11 01 2018.834 0 0.0 22 23
2018 11 02 2018.837 0 0.0 39 39
2018 11 03 2018.840 0 0.0 35 35
2018 11 04 2018.842 0 0.0 32 34
2018 11 05 2018.845 0 0.0 34 34
2018 11 06 2018.848 0 0.0 31 32
2018 11 07 2018.851 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 08 2018.853 0 3.9 29 42 - probable change w/13 outliers and std of 3.9
2018 11 09 2018.856 11 1.4 19 29 - probable change w/10 outliers and std of 1.4
2018 11 10 2018.859 0 0.0 11 16 - possible change w/5 outliers
2018 11 11 2018.862 0 0.0 24 28
2018 11 12 2018.864 15 1.6 19 22
2018 11 13 2018.867 12 1.3 32 36
2018 11 14 2018.870 12 1.8 36 44 - probable change w/8 outliers and std of 1.8
2018 11 15 2018.873 14 1.6 35 39
2018 11 16 2018.875 15 2.6 22 25
2018 11 17 2018.878 16 1.7 38 42
2018 11 18 2018.881 15 2.4 28 30
2018 11 19 2018.884 13 1.8 10 15 - possible change w/5 outliers and std of 1.8
2018 11 20 2018.886 0 0.0 14 14
2018 11 21 2018.889 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 22 2018.892 0 0.0 15 15
2018 11 23 2018.895 0 0.0 20 21
2018 11 24 2018.897 11 8.3 12 13 - probable change w/1 outlier and high std of 8.3.
2018 11 25 2018.900 14 2.0 13 16
2018 11 26 2018.903 0 0.0 10 16 - possible change w/6 outliers
2018 11 27 2018.905 0 0.0 20 20
2018 11 28 2018.908 0 0.0 22 22
2018 11 29 2018.911 0 0.0 21 21
2018 11 30 2018.914 0 0.0 24 25

Looking at this data, the ISN for November will most likely fall within the range of 5.1 to 5.5.
While the above data shows 19 spotless days, on December 1, 2018, three days
(November 8, 10, and 26) might not be listed as spotless due to the high numbers of outliers.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here are the comparisons seen in the Belgium's Royal Observatory EISN plots for the early hours of December 1, 2018 and then in the afternoon hours UT.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 11-30-2018_EISNcurrent..png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 11-30-2018_EISNcurrent..png (42.12 KiB) Viewed 5121 times
Attachments
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 12-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 12-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (38.95 KiB) Viewed 5063 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Now the notable changes:

Belgium has indeed added three days of sunspots, Nov. 8, 10, and 26 as I predicted.
While she has increased the numbers of sunspots, the range in daily sunspot numbers has decreased to 0-15.

I counted 178 sunspots on the revised plot map.
178/30 = 5.9 International Sunspot Number Mean for November 2018.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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