As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 03-31-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 03-31-2017_EISNcurrent.png (45.95 KiB) Viewed 1620 times

Behold, below is the March 31 - April 1 posting of the SILSO plot of Estimated International Sunspot Numbers (EISN).

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png (37.28 KiB) Viewed 1620 times

Scientists are told not to tamper with data, but statisticians at Brussels are eliminating any outliers (extremely high and low values), which skew the data. Shadows in the graph dated March 31, 2017 are the range of data with outliers already eliminated. However, in the first few hours of the new month, Brussels administrators make all their changes to the previous month data accepting the data once rejected as too high, while rejecting the low data. This is called tampering. It is not scientific. Why beg scientists worldwide to send in data only to reject it in favor of that observed or desired at Brussels by using individualized "k" factors.

I estimate, upon comparing the differences, that there is a two-point average disparity in the two plots. In other words, instead of an estimated international sunspot number hovering around 16 as displayed in the March 2017 plot, the International Sunspot Number will be approximately 18.

For a comparison, see the plots for March 5, 2017 --

The original plot shows an EISN of 7 with a range as seen in the shadows of 1 to 13, while the ISN given on the April 1 plot for March 5 is almost 15 (an outlier even higher than that given in the range).

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

ALERT -

4-1-2017_M4.4.png
4-1-2017_M4.4.png (37.23 KiB) Viewed 1621 times

M4.4 just occurred

Here is the raw data

Currently at M.1

Beginning - 2017-04-01 21:35:00 UTC
B7.8

Maximum - 2017-04-01 21:48:00 UTC
M4.4
Integrated flux: 0.046103 J m-2

End - 2017-04-01 22:05:00 UTC
M2.0

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is a solar image ... Looks like both sunspots #2644 and #2645 discharged together

NOAA has not reported anything, nor has http://www.spaceweather.com
They are most likely still analyzing the data. Since the flare was less than M5.0, no warnings will be issued.

The image below is not dynamic, but static. Therefore, it will not change.

Attachments
04-01-2017_M4.4_latest.png
04-01-2017_M4.4_latest.png (231.52 KiB) Viewed 1621 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The culprit has been identified as 2644, so apparently any CME delivered might avoid the Earth.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

1240 + 1930 1956 2013 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C3.7 6.4E-03 2644

1220 1930 //// 1933 PAL C RSP 025-075 III/2 2644
1220 1930 //// 1933 SAG C RSP 025-082 V/1 2644
1220 1931 1942 1946 HOL 2 FLA N15W53 SF DSD 2644

1230 1939 1939 1939 SAG G RBR 245 100

1250 2033 //// 2034 PAL C RSP 025-180 III/2

1260 + 2135 2148 2205 G15 5 XRA 1-8A M4.4 4.6E-02 2644
1260 2144 //// 2148 SAG C RSP 025-180 III/2
1260 + 2146 2147 2147 PAL G RBR 245 570
1260 + 2146 2147 2148 PAL G RBR 410 1700
1260 2146 2147 2148 PAL G RBR 8800 370
1260 2147 2147 2148 PAL G RBR 4995 230
1260 2147 //// 2149 PAL C RSP 025-180 V/3
1260 2147 2147 2148 PAL G RBR 15400 130
1260 2150 //// 2207 SAG C RSP 025-110 IV/2

1270 2151 2152 2152 PAL G RBR 4995 150

Below are the NOAA plots showing the impulsive M4.4 flare

EDIT: Note that the last C5.1 flare was attributed to Sunspot #2645 according to NOAA.

Attachments
04-01-2017_M4.4 sunspot 2644 and a recent C5.1 flare from 2645_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
04-01-2017_M4.4 sunspot 2644 and a recent C5.1 flare from 2645_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.85 KiB) Viewed 1619 times
04-01-2017_M4.4 _2148 UT_Sunspot 2644_goes-xray-flux.gif
04-01-2017_M4.4 _2148 UT_Sunspot 2644_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.79 KiB) Viewed 1621 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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According to NOAA, there are now four sunspots with a Beta configuration. One #2645, is a Beta-Gamma.

:Issued: 2017 Apr 02 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 92 Issued at 0030Z on 02 Apr 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 01 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 01/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2644 N12W52 057 0200 Eao 12 08 Beta
2645 S11W13 017 0520 Ekc 12 25 Beta-Gamma
2647 N11W13 018 0010 Bxo 03 04 Beta
2648 S03E72 293 0010 Bxo 03 02 Beta

#2648 in the southerly hemisphere of the Sun has just come into view. Will it develop rapidly as did #2645?
In a week, we should know, but by that time, the three other sunspots should have disappeared to the far side of the Sun.

Here is recent video showing the development of Sunspot 2645.

Image

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Luke »

That is an interesting video.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

We have had two Solar M-class flares while we slept.

The top plot shows a six hour plot with the most recent M-2.3 class solar flare at 1300 UT, April 2, 2017 from Sunspot 2644.
1630 + 1252 1300 1311 G15 5 XRA 1-8A M2.3

04-02-2017_Multiple M and C flares_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
04-02-2017_Multiple M and C flares_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10 KiB) Viewed 1600 times

The plot below is three day plot with the three M-flares, including the M5.3 at 0803 UT, April 2, 2017 from Sunspot 2644.
The giant 2645 has not been inactive, releasing multiple C flares including a C8.0 at 0246 UT on April 2, 2017 which preceded the M5.3.
Sunspot 2645 also released a C5.1 around 2303 UT on April 1, 2017. For some strange reason, whenever a Sunspot is geo-centered, it rarely releases a significant solar flare. This is miraculous for if all the geo-centered sunspots were to release solar flares and CMEs directed toward the earth, we would suffer much destruction of our grid with power outages, GPS disruptions, communication outages, etc.

Attachments
04-02-2017_Multiple M and C flares_goes-xray-flux.gif
04-02-2017_Multiple M and C flares_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.52 KiB) Viewed 1600 times

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