As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The most recent comment by Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: There are two active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR
2735 is decaying and has produced no activity in the past hours. On the
other hand, the newly numbered NOAA AR 2736 (beta magnetic field
configuration) has been more active producing numerous B-class flares and
two C-class flares, the largest wass a C5.6 one peaking at 03:12 UT. This
AR produced a faint CME yesterday directed mostly to the west, first seen
at 18:24 UT on LASCO-C2, this CME is not expected to affect the Earth.
Nevertheless, it had produced a larger CME earlier on March 20, first seen
at 12:00 UT as an asymmetric full halo CME with the bulk of the material
going to the northwest. Using LASCO-C2 and COR2 (beacon) images the speed
of this CME was calculated to be 751 km/s, a flank of the CME is expected
to hit the Earth on March 23.

Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 350 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours and the situation is
not expected to change until the CME arrival on March 23.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 040, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

Here are the most recent B and C flares attributed to AR2736

# Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2019 Mar 21

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8860 + 0004 0013 0019 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B8.0 4.0E-04 2736
8860 0007 0011 0022 HOL 3 FLA N09W34 SF 2736

8870 + 0252 0300 0304 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.2 4.7E-04 2736
8870 0256 0312 0326 LEA 3 FLA N07W35 1F DSD 2736

8880 + 0308 0312 0315 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C5.6 1.2E-03 2736

8890 0308 //// 0308 LEA C RSP 025-075 III/1

8880 0313 //// 0737 LEA 3 DSD //// 6 2736

8900 0518 //// 0554 LEA C RSP 052-147 CTM/1

8910 + 0756 0759 0801 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.6 2.3E-05

8920 0945 1012 1022 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.4 2.5E-04

8930 1117 1121 1131 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.1 7.4E-05

8940 + 1440 1444 1447 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.5 3.5E-04 2736
8940 1442 1444 1446 SVI 3 FLA N11W41 SF ERU 2736

8950 1542 1545 1547 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.2 3.6E-05

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

News breaking from www.spaceweather.com

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters say that moderate G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible on March 23rd when a coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The solar storm cloud was hurled in our direction by an explosion in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2736 on March 20th. During G2-class storms, auroras may be seen in northern-tier US states as far south as New York and Idaho. Aurora alerts: SMS text, email.

BIG SUNSPOT: Two days ago, sunspot AR2736 didn't exist. Now the rapidly-growing active region (movie) stretches across more than 100,000 km of the solar surface and contains multiple dark cores larger than Earth. Moreover, it has a complicated magnetic field that is crackling with C-class solar flares. The sunspot is inset in this magnetic map of the sun from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

Image

Sunspots are islands of magnetism floating on the surface of the sun. Most sunspots, like most magnets, have two poles + (N) and - (S). Sunspot ARorio2736, however, has multiple poles with areas of + and - jostling against one another. This is why the sunspot is crackling with flares. Magnetic field lines of opposing polarity criss-cross and explode--a process known as magnetic reconnection.

In the grand scheme of space weather, C-class solar flares are not considered to be major events. However, these explosions are noteworthy now because the sun has recently been so quiet. Solar Minimum is underway. In context, C-flares represent a real uptick in solar activity. They can ionize the top of Earth's atmosphere, disturb shortwave radio communications, and even hurl CMEs toward Earth. Indeed, one is heading our way now. Stay tuned.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Take a look at the GOES flux chart.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

We recently had another high C Flare today:
2019-03-22 05:14:00 UTC

C4.8

UPDATE: GOES shows that another flaring is taking place at 1:02 AM PDT March 22, 2019
This is an impulsive flare that is currently at C2.8 and is quickly rising.

Here is the current list of flaring:

# Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2019 Mar 22

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9040 + 0027 0034 0038 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C2.1 7.9E-04 2736
9040 0029 //// 0029 PAL U RSP 028-036 III/1

9050 0100 0105 0111 LEA 3 FLA N07W51 SF 2736

9060 + 0200 0206 0208 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.7 1.8E-04 2736

9070 0306 0306 0309 LEA 3 FLA N05W53 SF 2736

9080 0312 0320 0327 LEA 3 FLA N05W54 SF 2736

9120 0402 0402 0402 PAL G RBR 245 140

9090 + 0411 0415 0420 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.5 2.4E-04 2736

9100 0442 0444 0448 LEA 3 FLA N06W54 SF 2736

9110 + 0505 0514 0517 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C4.8 1.3E-03 2736

Solar flaring has increased from rapidly developing AR2736 and is currently at B2 to B3 levels with occasional C flaring, so at this rate of activity, we could have an M-class solar flare. Indeed, NASA has issued a 15 percent warning for M flaring. AR2736 is now approaching the Western Limb of the sun, so it will depart to the back side of the sun within a day (March 23).

AR2735 has decayed for the time being. However, it is following AR2736 and could reactivate as it reaches the Western Limb in a few days.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Belgium Comment for March 22, 2019: AR2736 = beta-gamma-delta

COMMENT: There are two active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR
2735 is decaying and has now alpha magnetic field configuration. NOAA AR
2736 has evolved into beta-gamma-delta and has produced seven C-class
flares in the past 24 h
, the largest was a C4.8 one peaking at 05:14 UT.
More C-class flares are expected and M-class flares remain possible.

No Earth directed CMEs in past 24 h. Solar protons have remained at
background levels over the past 24 h.

The solar wind speed is at 320 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours and the situation is
not expected to change until the CME from March 20 arrives to the Earth
(expected on March 23 around noon), K up to 5 can be expected (with
possible periods of K = 6).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 031, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Belgium's recent comments from the Royal Observatory:

March 23, 2019 - yesterday

COMMENT: NOAA AR 2735 has decayed into an H-alpha plage and AR 2736 has now
a beta-gamma configuration (no more delta) and is producing less flares.
One C-class flare in the past 24 h, C1.4 peaking at 20:23 UT on March 22.
More C-class flares are likely.

No Earth directed CMEs in past 24 h. Solar protons have remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 290 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
5 nT. Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours, the situation is
likely to change today with the arrival of the CME from March 20, K up to 5
can be expected (with possible periods of K = 6).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 024, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

March, 24 2019- today

: COMMENT: NOAA AR 2736 has decreased in size and complexity (it has now beta
magnetic field configuration) and did not produce anymore C-class flares in
the past 24 h. It did produce many B-class flares, including a B9.9 peaking
at 23:59 UT on March 23. The region is now rotating over the west limb,
C-class flares remain possible but less likely.

No Earth directed CMEs in past 24 h. Solar protons have remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is 265 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of 3
nT. The CME from March 20, expected to arrive yesterday (with 50%
probability) has not done so yet. It may have been slowed down by the very
slow solar wind that we are seeing now (in that case it could arrive
today), or it may have missed the Earth. The fast solar wind emanating from
a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole may affect the Earth in 48 h.
Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours, the situation will
change only if the CME arrives, in that case K up to 5 can be expected.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 017, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The latest March 25, 2019 Comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: During last 24 hours several B-class flares were observed, and the
strongest reported flare was B9.6 (peaked at 19:31 UT on March 24),
originating from the NOAA AR 2736 (no Catania numbering). This active
region, which was also source of many B-class and some C-class flares
during past few days, has rotated over the west solar limb. Another active
region which was observed on the visible side of the solar disc during last
days, NOAA AR 2735 (no Catania numbering), is presently situated at the
west solar limb. We can expect occasional B-class flares in the next 24
hours, while C-class flares are still possible but not probable.
There were no Earth directed CMEs reported during last 24 hours and the
solar protons remained at the background level.

The in situ observations (DSCOVR) indicate arrival of the CME-driven shock
wave, at about 20:43 UT on March 24. The shock observed in the solar wind
was associated with the March 20 CME. The arrival of the shock wave did not
induced disturbed geomagnetic conditions (local station at Dourbes and NOAA
reported only K=2 and Kp=2, respectively). The solar wind speed is about
330 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is 5 nT. The
geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet and we expect them to stay so in
the coming hours. The arrival of the fast solar wind, associated with the
negative polarity equatorial coronal hole that is expected tomorrow, might
induce unsettled to possibly active geomagnetic conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Here is the March 2019 text message from Belgium's Royal Observatory.

The comments following the dash are mine

2019 03 01 2019.163 0 0.0 20 21
2019 03 02 2019.166 0 0.0 22 23
2019 03 03 2019.168 0 0.0 19 20
2019 03 04 2019.171 0 0.0 31 35
2019 03 05 2019.174 9 7.4 37 39 – high std; 2 outliers – AR2734 has appeared
2019 03 06 2019.177 17 2.5 24 29 – 5 outliers
2019 03 07 2019.179 17 1.5 23 28 – 5 outliers
2019 03 08 2019.182 12 1.6 33 38 – 5 outliers
2019 03 09 2019.185 11 1.3 30 37 – 7 outliers
2019 03 10 2019.188 11 1.5 27 33 – 6 outliers
2019 03 11 2019.190 12 2.1 30 38 – 8 outliers, originally 0 sunspots w/2 reporting
2019 03 12 2019.193 11 1.5 14 24 – 10 outliers, originally 16 sunspots w/2 reporting
2019 03 13 2019.196 0 0.0 23 24 – AR2734 disappears to the far side
2019 03 14 2019.199 0 3.2 17 28 – high std; 11 outliers *
2019 03 15 2019.201 0 0.0 17 19
2019 03 16 2019.204 0 0.0 23 24
2019 03 17 2019.207 0 0.0 29 30
2019 03 18 2019.210 14 2.3 25 33 – 8 outliers # AR2735 appears
2019 03 19 2019.212 16 2.1 29 34 – 5 outliers; AR2736 appears
2019 03 20 2019.215 37 5.3 29 32 – high std; 3 outliers; AR2735 = beta; AR2736 rapidly growing
2019 03 21 2019.218 39 4.5 25 32 – high std; 7 outliers: AR2736 = beta magnetic complex structure
2019 03 22 2019.221 31 5.5 34 40 – high std; 6 outliers; AR2736 = beta-gamma-delta
2019 03 23 2019.223 25 4.6 23 27 – high std; 4 outliers – AR2735 decays; AR2736 = beta gamma
2019 03 24 2019.226 16 2.9 31 35 – 4 outliers; AR2736 is disappearing to far side of sun
2019 03 25 2019.229 0 0.0 31 31 – AR2736 disappears for its transit on the far side

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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