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The most recent comment by Belgium's Royal Observatory:
COMMENT: There are two active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR
2735 is decaying and has produced no activity in the past hours. On the
other hand, the newly numbered NOAA AR 2736 (beta magnetic field
configuration) has been more active producing numerous B-class flares and
two C-class flares, the largest wass a C5.6 one peaking at 03:12 UT. This
AR produced a faint CME yesterday directed mostly to the west, first seen
at 18:24 UT on LASCO-C2, this CME is not expected to affect the Earth.
Nevertheless, it had produced a larger CME earlier on March 20, first seen
at 12:00 UT as an asymmetric full halo CME with the bulk of the material
going to the northwest. Using LASCO-C2 and COR2 (beacon) images the speed
of this CME was calculated to be 751 km/s, a flank of the CME is expected
to hit the Earth on March 23.
Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is at 350 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours and the situation is
not expected to change until the CME arrival on March 23.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 040, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
Here are the most recent B and C flares attributed to AR2736
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters say that moderate G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible on March 23rd when a coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The solar storm cloud was hurled in our direction by an explosion in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2736 on March 20th. During G2-class storms, auroras may be seen in northern-tier US states as far south as New York and Idaho. Aurora alerts: SMS text, email.
BIG SUNSPOT: Two days ago, sunspot AR2736 didn't exist. Now the rapidly-growing active region (movie) stretches across more than 100,000 km of the solar surface and contains multiple dark cores larger than Earth. Moreover, it has a complicated magnetic field that is crackling with C-class solar flares. The sunspot is inset in this magnetic map of the sun from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:
Sunspots are islands of magnetism floating on the surface of the sun. Most sunspots, like most magnets, have two poles + (N) and - (S). Sunspot ARorio2736, however, has multiple poles with areas of + and - jostling against one another. This is why the sunspot is crackling with flares. Magnetic field lines of opposing polarity criss-cross and explode--a process known as magnetic reconnection.
In the grand scheme of space weather, C-class solar flares are not considered to be major events. However, these explosions are noteworthy now because the sun has recently been so quiet. Solar Minimum is underway. In context, C-flares represent a real uptick in solar activity. They can ionize the top of Earth's atmosphere, disturb shortwave radio communications, and even hurl CMEs toward Earth. Indeed, one is heading our way now. Stay tuned.
We recently had another high C Flare today:
2019-03-22 05:14:00 UTC
C4.8
UPDATE: GOES shows that another flaring is taking place at 1:02 AM PDT March 22, 2019
This is an impulsive flare that is currently at C2.8 and is quickly rising.
Solar flaring has increased from rapidly developing AR2736 and is currently at B2 to B3 levels with occasional C flaring, so at this rate of activity, we could have an M-class solar flare. Indeed, NASA has issued a 15 percent warning for M flaring. AR2736 is now approaching the Western Limb of the sun, so it will depart to the back side of the sun within a day (March 23).
AR2735 has decayed for the time being. However, it is following AR2736 and could reactivate as it reaches the Western Limb in a few days.
Belgium Comment for March 22, 2019: AR2736 = beta-gamma-delta
COMMENT: There are two active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR
2735 is decaying and has now alpha magnetic field configuration. NOAA AR
2736 has evolved into beta-gamma-delta and has produced seven C-class
flares in the past 24 h, the largest was a C4.8 one peaking at 05:14 UT.
More C-class flares are expected and M-class flares remain possible.
No Earth directed CMEs in past 24 h. Solar protons have remained at
background levels over the past 24 h.
The solar wind speed is at 320 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours and the situation is
not expected to change until the CME from March 20 arrives to the Earth
(expected on March 23 around noon), K up to 5 can be expected (with
possible periods of K = 6).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 031, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
Belgium's recent comments from the Royal Observatory:
March 23, 2019 - yesterday
COMMENT: NOAA AR 2735 has decayed into an H-alpha plage and AR 2736 has now
a beta-gamma configuration (no more delta) and is producing less flares.
One C-class flare in the past 24 h, C1.4 peaking at 20:23 UT on March 22.
More C-class flares are likely.
No Earth directed CMEs in past 24 h. Solar protons have remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is at 290 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
5 nT. Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours, the situation is
likely to change today with the arrival of the CME from March 20, K up to 5
can be expected (with possible periods of K = 6).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 024, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
March, 24 2019- today
: COMMENT: NOAA AR 2736 has decreased in size and complexity (it has now beta
magnetic field configuration) and did not produce anymore C-class flares in
the past 24 h. It did produce many B-class flares, including a B9.9 peaking
at 23:59 UT on March 23. The region is now rotating over the west limb,
C-class flares remain possible but less likely.
No Earth directed CMEs in past 24 h. Solar protons have remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is 265 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of 3
nT. The CME from March 20, expected to arrive yesterday (with 50%
probability) has not done so yet. It may have been slowed down by the very
slow solar wind that we are seeing now (in that case it could arrive
today), or it may have missed the Earth. The fast solar wind emanating from
a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole may affect the Earth in 48 h.
Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours, the situation will
change only if the CME arrives, in that case K up to 5 can be expected.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 017, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.
The latest March 25, 2019 Comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:
COMMENT: During last 24 hours several B-class flares were observed, and the
strongest reported flare was B9.6 (peaked at 19:31 UT on March 24),
originating from the NOAA AR 2736 (no Catania numbering). This active
region, which was also source of many B-class and some C-class flares
during past few days, has rotated over the west solar limb. Another active
region which was observed on the visible side of the solar disc during last
days, NOAA AR 2735 (no Catania numbering), is presently situated at the
west solar limb. We can expect occasional B-class flares in the next 24
hours, while C-class flares are still possible but not probable.
There were no Earth directed CMEs reported during last 24 hours and the
solar protons remained at the background level.
The in situ observations (DSCOVR) indicate arrival of the CME-driven shock
wave, at about 20:43 UT on March 24. The shock observed in the solar wind
was associated with the March 20 CME. The arrival of the shock wave did not
induced disturbed geomagnetic conditions (local station at Dourbes and NOAA
reported only K=2 and Kp=2, respectively). The solar wind speed is about
330 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is 5 nT. The
geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet and we expect them to stay so in
the coming hours. The arrival of the fast solar wind, associated with the
negative polarity equatorial coronal hole that is expected tomorrow, might
induce unsettled to possibly active geomagnetic conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.