As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Non-political secular news and anything else (within the boundaries of Christian morality and good taste) that is not on-topic in any other section. Any politically charged material must be posted in the private Political and Social Issues forum; please PM admin for access. All Forum Rules apply. No polemics. No heated discussions. No name-calling.
Post Reply
User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

A new B-class solar flare: B1.2
Maximum peak at 2019-03-18 18:35:00 UTC

Here is the list of solar flaring (6 B-class solar flares) for today from the newly numbered active region: AR2735.

# Edited Events for 2019 Mar 18
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8650 1209 1213 1216 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 3.8E-05

8660 1339 1343 1346 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 3.5E-05

8670 + 1348 1351 1355 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.6 3.4E-05 2735
8670 1349 U1349 1400 HOL 3 FLA N02E24 SF DSD 2735

8680 1625 1638 1642 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.7 1.3E-04

8690 + 1731 1734 1738 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 2.9E-05

8700 + 1832 1835 1838 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 2.2E-05 2735
8700 1834 1835 1839 HOL 4 FLA N02E22 SF ERU 2735

To see the latest flaring, please visit: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Barbara
Protoposter
Posts: 3983
Joined: Sat 29 September 2012 6:03 pm

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Barbara »

That aurora over Tromso a few posts back is breathtaking !

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Barbara wrote:

That aurora over Tromso a few posts back is breathtaking !

Yes, that is why I called it a "God Shot."

Right now AR2735, even though it has developed into a beta, appears dormant as there is little solar activity. The GOES X-ray flux red line is straight lined at the very bottom of A0. See the flux chart at this link: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

See the bipolar green (+) and yellow (-) region near the center of the sun at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg.
The red sunspots are visible in the yellow colored regions.

It seems like these active regions go dormant during a solar minimum as they approach the center of the sun, but as they approach the outer limb to transit around the other side of the sun,, then they become active again for a couple of days.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From the Belgium Royal Observatory, 3-19-2019

COMMENT: There is one active region visible on the solar disk (NOAA 2735
with beta magnetic field configuration). No C-class flares in past 24 h.
Solar activity is expected to remain low.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar
protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 375 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
6 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the past 24 h. In the last
hours, density and interplanetary magnetic field started to increase,
together with a change of negative to positive IMF polarity. These are most
likely signs of the compression region in front of the high speed solar
wind stream expected for today. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions
can be expected (with possible isolated minor storm conditions).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 015, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

Solar activity has increased but remains low and in the A level.
There might be another active region developing in the Northern Hemisphere
that is approaching the West limb ahead of AR2735.

While AR2735 has the magnetic polarity of old solar cycle 24,
the developing active region has a strange magnetic polarity.
Click the link below.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg

For you, Barbara, here is another spectacular photo of Northern auroras posted on www.spaceweather.com

SPRING GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: Cracks in Earth's magnetic field? It only sounds like science fiction. In fact, a magnetic crack opened for more than 5 hours on March 16-17. The resulting G1-class geomagnetic storm sparked stunning auroras around the Arctic Circle. "The display I witnessed knocked me off my feet!" says photographer of Göran Strand of Björkliden Sweden:

Image

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Barbara
Protoposter
Posts: 3983
Joined: Sat 29 September 2012 6:03 pm

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Barbara »

Funny ! I noticed that presumed photographer prone in the snow and wondered why. Then I read the post. That reminds us of Elder Ambrose of Optina's words in another thread.

What a display ! Thanks for posting this, since I would not have checked around myself. Notice how the almost fluorescent green light is reflected in the windows of that small building. I wonder whether this was a ski area or a location for observing such phenomena in the sky ?

Imagine being there in person, when even a photo looks so supernatural.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

The new unnumbered active region, AR2736?, mentioned in my prior post has been rapidly growing in only a few hours as it approaches the western limb of the sun ahead of the established AR2735, which now appears to be decaying.

Note that the new active region has a magnetic polarity that is very strange. See this HMI Magnetogram colored image of the sun: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg

With this new active region, solar activity has ramped up. Take a gander at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux.

The EISN plot from Belgium, which can be found at http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot, shows a sharp increase in Estimated International Sunspot Numbers (EISN), which now reads 37 with two astronomical stations reporting (not statistically significant). The average number of sunspots per day stands at approximately 6.8 for the 19th of March. After more astronomers report in later during the day of March 20, we should get a better picture.

Could it be that we have already or will soon approach the lowest point in this solar minimum? Per Belgium, the lowest month of this solar minimum would be "the month in which the (Meeus smoothed) solar cycle minimum took place." If this lowest month of this solar minimum has already taken place in August 2018, December 2018, or February 2019, then this would be a short solar minimum, and next winter could be slightly warmer. However, I believe that we cannot yet predict, and that at least six more months or even more will need to be observed before a prediction can be made. Time will tell. The sun is not neatly predictable, and that drives some scientists crazy, so we must be patient.

Regarding cooling trends, nature can surprise us as there have been quite a few recent volcanic eruptions, which do cool the earth as they spew their volcanic ash and gases high into the atmosphere, blanketing the earth with dusty clouds and preventing the warming rays of the sun from reaching us for months. Also remember that a polar shift is in progress, but a rapid pole shift could occur which could also plunge the earth into an ice age. And then there is the possibility of an asteroid hit, which could also bring on an ice age.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

New comment from the Belgium Royal Observatory:

COMMENT:There is an unnumbered active region to the northwest of AR 2735
that developed quickly in the last hours. It produced a C4.8 flare peaking
at 11:18 UT and several B-class flares.
A small dimming was also visible in
relation to these flares, there are no coronagraph data yet to search for
an associated CME. This will be confirmed later as the data become
available. There is one numbered active region visible on the solar disk
(NOAA AR 2735 with beta magnetic field configuration). This region has
grown in size and number of sunspots. A small dimming was seen from this AR
on 18 March at 14:27 UT, for which no obvious CME could be found in the
data. More C-class flares can be expected, M-class flares are possible.

Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed did not reach high values (lower than 420 km/s) in the
high speed stream that was expected for yesterday, the interplanetary
magnetic field remained below 8 nT. Therefore, geomagnetic conditions
reached only unsettled levels (K = 3). At present, the solar wind speed is
at 400 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of 4 nT. Quiet to unsettled
conditions can be expected in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 038, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

UPDATE: Newly numbered AR2736 and AR2735 have rapidly developed in the last few hours. Both now appear to have complex magnetic structures. Please view the most recent HMI colored magnetogram from NASA at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg
Below is the list of recent Solar Flares from this huge new sunspot.

# Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2019 Mar 20

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8720 0017 0020 0022 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.1 1.8E-05

8730 0153 //// 0153 LEA C RSP 025-080 III/1
8730 0153 //// 0211 PAL C RSP 025-065 VI/1

8740 0705 0714 0725 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.1 4.9E-04
8740 0707 0714 0716 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.1 2.6E-04
8740 0709 //// 0710 LEA C RSP 025-173 III/2

8750 0845 0847 0901 LEA 3 FLA N07W27 SF 2736
8750 0849 //// 0854 LEA C RSP 025-054 III/2 2736

8760 + 1035 1118 1134 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C4.8 6.7E-03 2736
8760 B1042 U1112 A1219 SVI 3 FLA N09W26 1N PRB 2736
8760 + 1109 1110 1113 SVI G RBR 245 220 2736
8760 + 1110 1110 1113 SVI G RBR 410 84 2736
8760 1111 1111 1111 SVI G RBR 1415 71 2736
8760 1111 //// 1113 SAG C RSP 025-085 III/2 2736
8760 1120 //// 1123 SAG C RSP 031-056 II/1 3762 2736
8760 + 1130 1136 1136 SAG G RBR 610 1400 2736

8770 + 1219 1225 1228 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.4 1.7E-04 2736
8770 B1221 U1223 A1258 SVI 3 FLA N09W26 SF ERU 2736

8780 1306 1309 1314 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.0 3.3E-05

reference: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports


This just in from http://www.spaceweather.com. It explains the more complicated and multiple magnetic poles.

EARTH-FACING SUNSPOTS: Two sunspot groups are emerging on the Earth-facing side of the sun. They are inset in this magnetic map of the sun from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

Image
Sunspots are islands of magnetism floating on the surface of the sun. Like all magnets they have poles, + and -. Sunspot AR2735 has a simple bipolar magnetic structure that identifies it as a member of old Solar Cycle 24.

The other sunspot, as yet unnumbered, has a more complicated structure with multiple magnetic poles. It is probably a member of old Solar Cycle 24 as well. However, the mixture of magnetic polarities makes it worth watching. Mixed-polarity magnetic fields can criss, cross, and explode--a process known as "magnetic reconnection" underlying solar flares.. Solar flare alerts: SMS text, email.

Note that spaceweather.com has stated that "magnetic reconnection" leading to an explosion can occur, and Belgium has mentioned the possibility of an M flare.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

Post Reply