As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 26 June 2019 4:00 am

After 25 days without a single sunspot, the longest stretch of spotlessness, on June 24, there appeared two ephemeral active regions: 2742 and 2743. Both of these active regions were from the old solar cycle 24 as seen by their +/- polarity.

While AR2742 appears to have decayed almost immediately as soon as it appeared, AR2743 hung on for one to two more days.

Today, June 26, it appears that both have vanished. We will know more in a few hours. View: https://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/

Something seems to be coming around the East limb of the sun. We will know in a day or two, but most likely it is only a plage, the shell of a former active region. These plages are common during a solar minimum.

Jun 2019 – stats from Astronomers - my comments follow


2019 06 01 2019.415 0 0.0 38 41 + 2 previous days w/o spots
2019 06 02 2019.418 0 0.0 35 39
2019 06 03 2019.421 0 0.0 35 37
2019 06 04 2019.423 0 0.0 34 36
2019 06 05 2019.426 0 0.0 30 32
2019 06 06 2019.429 0 0.0 33 35
2019 06 07 2019.432 0 0.0 31 32
2019 06 08 2019.434 0 0.0 32 33
2019 06 09 2019.437 0 0.0 29 31
2019 06 10 2019.440 0 0.0 34 35
2019 06 11 2019.442 0 0.0 37 41
2019 06 12 2019.445 0 0.0 31 33
2019 06 13 2019.448 0 0.0 36 38
2019 06 14 2019.451 0 0.0 33 36
2019 06 15 2019.453 0 0.0 32 34
2019 06 16 2019.456 0 0.0 35 37
2019 06 17 2019.459 0 0.0 34 36
2019 06 18 2019.462 0 0.0 33 35
2019 06 19 2019.464 0 0.0 32 35
2019 06 20 2019.467 0 0.0 31 33
2019 06 21 2019.470 0 0.0 36 38
2019 06 22 2019.473 0 0.0 30 33
2019 06 23 2019.475 0 0.0 30 36 – 6 outliers; spot @ 2215 UT
2019 06 24 2019.478 11 7.3 31 37 – very hi std; 6 outliers
2019 06 25 2019.481 12 1.5 25 35 – 10 outliers

Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
For June 24 = 11 with a standard deviation of 7.3 (very high) and 6 outliers
For June 25 = 12 with a standard deviation of 1.5 (low) but with 10 outliers

Outliers are stats that do not fit the curve, and therefore are deleted.
When there are 5 outliers or more, that is significant, especially with only 30 observers,
as the deletion of these outliers may cause significant errors with such a small number
of astronomical stations reporting.

Cloudy days impede astronomical observations. If the astronomers are all from the same
area, then that will also skew the results. Hence some of those stations will have to have
their data deleted. For example, Arizona is known for its sunny days, good conditions for
observing the sun. If 10 of the 30 observation stations are from Arizona on a given day,
then that would not be a very good sampling as a worldwide sampling is needed for
scientific accuracy.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Luke » Tue 2 July 2019 2:05 pm

Argentina and Chile have a solar eclipse today.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 2 July 2019 3:05 pm

Yes, do you know anyone from those two countries?

While the solar disc remains spotless, there is a plage (a white area) that keeps developing a sunspot or two only to have them fade away.

For June 2019, Belgium has decided that only four days had sunspots, ones that did not last very long nor did these ephemeral active regions 2742 and 2743 issue any significant solar flares. Thus, for June, there were 26 spotless days. Significantly, a spotless streak of 26 days lasted from May 29 to June 23, This was the longest stretch for this solar minimum.

The ISN for June 2019 is 1.2.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 2 July 2019 3:19 pm

The polarity of solar cycle 24 sunspots is a +/- , which can be seen on Nov. 19, 2019 with AR2727.
This can be seen at http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2018

Image

The new solar cycle 25 will show a reverse polarity of -/+
Only a few active regions, usually ephemeral ones, have shown this configuration, but none lately.
We will see more and more active regions with this configuration as solar cycle 25 manifests itself
and comes to a peak at the next solar maximum.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Luke » Tue 2 July 2019 3:37 pm

No. I know nobody from Chile or Argentina. A stargazer in California, who I follow on Facebook, flew to Chile.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Luke » Fri 12 July 2019 3:02 pm

This link from Spaceweather shows an aurora from the stratosphere: http://spaceweather.com/images2019/11jul19/sofia1.jpg?PHPSESSID=gefuscmv4ako82brdj6oq0l8k3


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