As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 4 December 2018 10:13 pm

Today at 2115 UT, I discovered a small active region slightly to the right of center.
It is barely visible. Will it be present tomorrow?

GOES X-ray flux is now at a low A0 through A1, but earlier this morning it was at A2.
This is normal for a solar minimum.

So far, the EISN shows no sunspots
Text message from Belgium's Royal Observatory shows:
2018 12 01 2018.916 0 0.0 9 10 - only one outlier; not significant
2018 12 02 2018.919 0 0.0 16 16
2018 12 03 2018.922 0 0.0 19 19
2018 12 04 2018.925 0 0.0 26 27 - only one outlier; not significant
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 6 December 2018 2:09 am

Belgium issued a comment today admitting that a new bipolar sunspot has emerged approaching the limb of the sun.
It has grown substantially from yesterday as seen at The Sun Today. Will it still be here tomorrow?

Here is a movie of the growth process of this new active region.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2018/ ... 6lsk2vlp37

2018 12 01 2018.916 0 0.0 9 10
2018 12 02 2018.919 0 0.0 16 16
2018 12 03 2018.922 0 0.0 19 19
2018 12 04 2018.925 0 0.0 26 27
2018 12 05 2018.927 17 2.1 14 17
2018 12 06 2018.930 22 0.0 1 1

From http://www.spaceweather archives of November 19, 2018: http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2018

A SUNSPOT FROM THE NEXT SOLAR CYCLE: Over the weekend, a small sunspot materialized in the sun's northern hemisphere, then, hours later, vanished again. Such an occurrence is hardly unusual during solar minimum when sunspots are naturally small and short-lived. However, this ephemeral spot was noteworthy because its magnetic field was reversed--marking it as a member of the next solar cycle.

Image

Shown above is a magnetic map of the sun from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on Nov. 17th. Two sunspot groups visible at 21:00 UT are inset.

Note sunspot AR2727 just north of the sun's equator. It is a member of decaying Solar Cycle 24, the cycle that peaked back in 2012-2014. Next, compare its magnetic polarity to that of the other, unnumbered sunspot high above it. They are opposite. According to Hale's Law, this means the two sunspots belong to different solar cycles. The high latitude sunspot appears to be a harbinger of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar cycles always mix together at their boundaries. Indeed, ephemeral sunspots possibly belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have already been reported on Dec. 20, 2016, and April 8, 2018. Now we can add Nov. 17, 2018, to list. The slow transition between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 appears to be underway.


This new sunspot also has a reverse polarity as seen at https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg
Notice that it is yellow-green or -/+ polarity. Thus, we can also add Dec. 5, 2018 to the list of four active regions belonging to the new Solar Cycle 25.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 6 December 2018 9:12 pm

New Active Region 2729 persists with three B-Class Solar Flares on December 5, 2018.
In a couple of days, AR2729 will depart this side of the sun. Will it return in 14 days?

Edited Events for 2018 Dec 05
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7500 + 0231 0236 0239 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.5 5.0E-05 2729

7510 + 2019 2025 2033 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 8.5E-05 2729

7520 + 2038 2041 2045 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.1 2.8E-05 2729


ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/eve ... terday.txt

Belgium's Daily Comment from the Royal Observatory is below:

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. One
small bipolar sunspot group (Catania sunspot group 2, NOAA 2729) is visible
on the disc, but no significant flare has been recorded. Flaring conditions
is expected to remain quiet with a small change of C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind measurements remained under the influence of the enhanced
solar wind associated with the Coronal Hole (which reached the central
meridian on November 27). The wind speed decreased from 462 to about 390
km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength was below 5.5 nT and the
southward magnetic component fluctuated between -4 and 4.5 nT. The solar
wind parameters are expected to continue to decrease to the slow solar wind
regime. Then the solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced due to
the fast solar wind associated with this coronal hole (which reached the
central meridian on December 04) on December 7.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet. The conditions are expected to be
mainly quiet as the Earth is entering the slow solar wind speed regime. The
geomagnetic conditions will then become more active due to the arrival of
the fast solar wind on December 7.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 020, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 7 December 2018 11:04 pm

AR2729 is showing solar activities with occasional B flaring and is
about to transit to the other side of the sun.

# Updated every 5 minutes.
# Edited Events for 2018 Dec 07
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7540 1951 1955 2002 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.2 5.7E-05 2729


From NOAA: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports
is still actively flaring.

The EISN text message from Belgium shows that AR2729 is rather steady considering the standard deviation.

2018 12 01 2018.916 0 0.0 10 11
2018 12 02 2018.919 0 0.0 16 16
2018 12 03 2018.922 0 0.0 20 20
2018 12 04 2018.925 0 0.0 27 29
2018 12 05 2018.927 18 2.1 17 20
2018 12 06 2018.930 20 1.7 13 15
2018 12 07 2018.933 18 2.2 14 16
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 8 December 2018 11:36 pm

Belgium's Royal Observatory comment for today, Dec. 8, 2018

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The
bipolar sunspot group (Catania sunspot group 2, NOAA 2729) remained
globally stable and did not produce any significant flare. A new region is
visible on the East limb, but so far do not show any strong activity.
Flaring conditions are expected to remain quiet with a very small change of
C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind environment is under the influence of the enhanced solar
wind associated with the Coronal Hole (which reached the central meridian
on December 04). The wind speed continued to gradually increase from about
425 km/s to reach the values around 570 km/s ; The interplanetary magnetic
field strength fluctuated between 5 and 10 nT and the southward magnetic
component between -7 and 6 nT being mainly positive. The enhanced solar
wind conditions are expected to persist in the following days as long as
Earth remains under the influence of the solar wind associated with the
coronal hole.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled with short periods of
active condition observed by the local station in Dourbes (K-Dourbs=4) on
December 7, at 20:00 UT and 21:00 UT. The conditions are expected to remain
the same in response to an enhanced interplanetary magnetic field, short
periods of active condition are possible especially if there is a prolonged
period of southward directed Bz component.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.


Earlier, one station reported observing 10 sunspots, but now there is a significant disagreement:
8 of the 21 stations reporting seem to be outliers. 21 - 13 = 8.
The average EISN is now approximately 6.8.

2018 12 01 2018.916 0 0.0 10 11
2018 12 02 2018.919 0 0.0 16 16
2018 12 03 2018.922 0 0.0 20 20
2018 12 04 2018.925 0 0.0 27 29
2018 12 05 2018.927 18 2.4 19 21
2018 12 06 2018.930 20 1.7 16 18
2018 12 07 2018.933 17 2.4 17 19
2018 12 08 2018.936 0 0.0 13 21


Today's GOES X-ray flux shows increased solar activity, almost into the B-class.
With a gradual rise and a gradual decline, this may be a hyderflare, which is a rupture of a magnetic filament.
So far, NOAA has not issued any reports regarding this solar activity.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/sola ... nt-reports

However, this increased solar activity could be from the new active region, which is rotating into view.
By the way, this tiny new active region has a normal polarity consistent with solar cycle 24.

Click this link to view the latest NASA image (HMI) of the sun showing the magnetic polarity.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIBC.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 9 December 2018 9:17 am

GOES X-ray flux shows B flaring for the first time in a long time.

Notice the double peak which I have labeled as a "Hail Mary" because of the M formation.
So far, NOAA has not affirmed the source of this B2.4 class solar flare.
Attachments
12-09-2018_B2.4_0710 UT, Hail Mary_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
12-09-2018_B2.4_0710 UT, Hail Mary_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (9.57 KiB) Viewed 725 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 9 December 2018 7:56 pm

# Updated every 5 minutes.
# Edited Events for 2018 Dec 09
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7550 + 0705 0710 0716 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.4 1.2E-04 2729

7570 1448 1502 1507 G14 5 XRA 1-8A B1.4 1.3E-04 2729

7560 1449 1453 1456 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.1 3.0E-05 2729


Finally, we have the answer. All those B class solar flares (see the GOES X-Ray flux in the post above)
have their source in Active Region 2729, which is departing for its trip around the back of the sun.
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