As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 27 October 2018 3:46 pm

Here is the latest comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. There are currently no significant Active
Regions on the solar disk. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares
and a low probability of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed fluctuated between 380 to 420 km/s over the past 24
hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 5 nT. The Bz
component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-2
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
quiet.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.


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Note: Even with a spotless sun, and even during a solar minimum, we could experience a sudden and unespected strong flare if a long magnetic filament should rise up from the solar surface and then snap with an explosive force. This is why Belgium makes the comment "Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares." Sudden impulsive solar flares do affect our weather patterns on earth because they heat up the ionosphere. Could man be interfering with space and our weather patterns? Certainly. Think lasers.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 2 November 2018 4:34 am

2018 10 01 2018.749 17 2.1 33 39
2018 10 02 2018.752 15 1.9 30 35
2018 10 03 2018.755 13 1.6 36 45
2018 10 04 2018.758 11 1.7 27 42
2018 10 05 2018.760 0 0.0 44 47
2018 10 06 2018.763 0 0.0 32 35
2018 10 07 2018.766 0 0.0 31 32
2018 10 08 2018.768 0 0.0 38 38
2018 10 09 2018.771 0 0.0 41 43
2018 10 10 2018.774 0 0.0 38 40
2018 10 11 2018.777 7 4.6 25 31
2018 10 12 2018.779 16 4.8 34 44
2018 10 13 2018.782 26 6.2 31 36
2018 10 14 2018.785 23 3.1 30 37
2018 10 15 2018.788 11 8.1 32 34
2018 10 16 2018.790 0 0.0 34 38
2018 10 17 2018.793 11 1.2 22 35
2018 10 18 2018.796 0 0.0 33 34
2018 10 19 2018.799 0 0.0 34 34
2018 10 20 2018.801 0 0.0 32 32
2018 10 21 2018.804 0 0.0 25 36
2018 10 22 2018.807 0 0.0 32 37


Note: observations of the sun showed that it remained spotless from 10-22-2018 to 10-31-2018.
How long will this spotless trend continue in the month of November 2018?

The text message from Belgium above shows 21 spotless days with an average mean of 4.9.
The adjusted chart below from Belgium shows 20 spotless days with an average mean of 4.9.
Attachments
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 11-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 11-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (39.78 KiB) Viewed 89 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 7 November 2018 7:22 pm

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS IN THE OFFING: A large hole in the sun's atmosphere is turning to face Earth, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind toward our planet. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the structure on Nov. 7th:

Image

This is a "coronal hole," a place where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. It looks dark because the glowing hot plasma normally contained there is missing--in this case, en route to Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 10th.


VIsit: http://www.spaceweather.com for November 7, 2018

For a current image of this massive coronal hole, see: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0193.jpg

Notice that there seems to be something coming around the bend in this solar image. It could be another H-alpha plage, but whatever it is, the sun's activity according to GOES X-ray flux shows increased agitation in the A1 to A2 range.
See: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 12 November 2018 4:49 pm

We have had an active region that has appeared only to disappear again. This ephemeral area, AR 2726, has appeared once again, but is rapidly decaying now. Will it come back? Never say never.

Note: this is perfectly normal during a solar minimum.

Here is the Royal Observatory of Belgium's daily comment for today:

COMMENT: Beta region NOAA 2726 has emerged on November 11 but is
disintegrating fast. There were no flares on the visible solar disc of the
Sun in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is
estimated at only 2%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently under the influence of a high speed stream
associated with a negative equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind speed near
Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 520 and 640 km/s in the
past 24 hours, with current values around 550 km/s. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its
magnitude varied between about 0 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -6 nT. Solar
wind speed is expected to decrease over the next days.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to active
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on November 12, with a
slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on November 13 and 14.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 13 November 2018 7:57 pm

AR 2726 persists, and consistent with this observation, the GOES X-ray flux shows continuous solar activity in the A1 to A2 range.

Here is Belgium's EISN text message for today showing the observed sunspots for November 2018 with the average mean being 3.5.

2018 11 01 2018.834 0 0.0 20 21
2018 11 02 2018.837 0 0.0 34 34
2018 11 03 2018.840 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 04 2018.842 0 0.0 28 30
2018 11 05 2018.845 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 06 2018.848 0 0.0 27 28
2018 11 07 2018.851 0 0.0 28 28
2018 11 08 2018.853 0 4.1 24 35
2018 11 09 2018.856 11 1.4 17 25
2018 11 10 2018.859 0 0.0 8 12
2018 11 11 2018.862 0 0.0 19 22
2018 11 12 2018.864 15 1.6 13 15
2018 11 13 2018.867 11 1.1 24 28


Below is Belgium's Royal Observatory Daily Comment.

COMMENT: There were no flares on the visible solar disc of the Sun in the
past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated
at only 2%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR
rose from about 550 to 650 km/s and then decreased to current values around
475 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly
directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 7 nT.
Bz was never below -5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to further decrease
over the next days.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1
and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions
(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on November 13, 14 and 15.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.


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