As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Below is the latest GOES X-ray flux showing disrupted solar activity due to the new AR2719.

Visit The Sun Today. Beta AR2719 changes hourly increasing, then decreasing.
cf. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Attachments
08-19-2018_solar minimum activity disruption with new AR2719_goes-xray-flux.gif
08-19-2018_solar minimum activity disruption with new AR2719_goes-xray-flux.gif (11.94 KiB) Viewed 787 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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According to the NOAA report at 0030 UT, August 21, 2018, newly named active region, AR2718, remains a Beta. It seems to decay and then it comes back to life.

2719 S07E29 134 0010 Bxo 04 05 Beta

The Sun Today at shows an expanding area, but will this last or will it decay overnight?
cf. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Here is the daily comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory.

COMMENT: Solar activity was very quiet with X-ray flux remaining below B
level. NOAA active region 2718 has decayed while the newly developing small
bipolar region in the East was numbered NOAA 2719.

X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.

Around 5:00UT August 19, a minor but long duration A-flare from region 2718
was associated with an on disk dimming (5:40UT august 19), evidencing an
eruptive phenomenon.
In SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images a very narrow
(only around 10 degrees angular width) CME is visible from August 19 7:36UT
onwards, directed towards the South-West
. It is also visible from Stereo A
COR2, also narrow and directed to the South-West from this viewpoint. From
the Stereo COR2 images a radial speed of around 1000 km/s may be estimated.
Given the narrow angular extent and the direction of the ejecta (no halo
character from Earth perspective), the bulk of this CME is expected to go
South of the Earth.

Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind conditions were indicative of the arrival of the expected high
speed stream from the transequatorial negative polarity coronal hole.
Solar wind speed reached a minimum of close to 400 km/s near the start of
the period and then started a steady increase to current values of over 650
km/s. Between 17UT and 8UT total magnetic field was enhanced reaching
values of close to 14nT, but the Bz component was mainly positive.
Meanwhile, total magnetic field has restored to below 5nT.
Solar wind speed is still expected to increase and is expected to remain
elevated for several days given the extent of the coronal hole.
For the CME
of August 19 the bulk of the CME is expected to go South of the Earth but
there remains a possibility that a shock arrives at Earth. If this occurs
this is expected around midnight August 21/22 but its effect will be small
within the already elevated background solar wind conditions.
Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet to unsettled (K Dourbes and NOAA
Kp 1-3) with an isolated active period for Kp around midnight.
Geomagnetic conditions may reach active levels under the influence of the
high speed stream over the next days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

Below is the GOES X-ray flux.

Attachments
08-21-2018_solar  activity increases with growing AR2719_goes-xray-flux.gif
08-21-2018_solar activity increases with growing AR2719_goes-xray-flux.gif (11.9 KiB) Viewed 780 times

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Thank you. That is helpful.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Wow! What a difference a day makes. Although AR2719 is still listed as a Beta by NOAA for August 22, 2018, it appears to be rapidly decaying.

What has happened to the Active areas 2718 and 2719? Both appear rather dormant now. With three astronomers checking into Belgium, the EISN at this moment is 16. Will that number drop as the sun turns?

  • UPDATE at 12:03 AM PDT (0703 UT): Yes, EISN from Belgium is now ZERO with nine astronomers reporting. Two station reports have been dropped as outliers, so seven of the nine remain.

    2018 08 22 2018.640 0 0.0 7 9

    The Sun Today shows no sunspots as the two active regions AR2718 and AR2719 have now decayed to H-alpha plages, but these have been known to bounce back and flare. One thing about this solar minimum is the unpredictability of what active regions will do from moment to moment.

+++ +++ +++ +++ +++

  • Another UPDATE at 02:07 AM PDT (0907 UT): Today, astronomers beg to disagree if they saw spots before their eyes or if they did not. The consensus so far is that the EISN is ZERO even though there is a standard deviation of 4.5.

    2018 08 22 2018.640 0 4.5 13 18

    Eighteen stations have reported their findings, but only 13 were accepted because 5 have been deleted as outliers.

Look at the latest GOES X-ray flux. The red line is deeply into the A0 "basement" (solar minimum) area.
Hey, perhaps NOAA could offer to print these daily fluxes on a quilt. I might buy one, especially as the nights get progressively cooler during this solar minimum.

Attachments
08-22-2018_solar  activity rapidly changes_ AR2719 appears to decay_goes-xray-flux.gif
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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

A CME was detected. At first the location was unknown, but it appears to have been a hyderflare, which is not uncommon during a solar minimum. You will recall in one of the solar photos that I displayed on August 18, there was a demonic looking face in the sun made by a huge circular magnetic filament in the northern hemisphere of the sun. This filament apparently erupted on August 19.

solar image_08-18-2018_Old Man in the Sun.jpg
solar image_08-18-2018_Old Man in the Sun.jpg (134.35 KiB) Viewed 767 times

Below is Belgium's Royal Observatory comment for August 21, 2018.

COMMENT: Solar activity continued to be very low with X-ray flux remaining
below B level throughout the period.
Field separation was observed the simple bipolar NOAA active region 2719
inhibiting only a small potential for a possible C flare.
X-ray flux is thus expected to remain below C level.

The filament located around the central meridian between 35 and 50 degrees
North seems to have lifted off around 19:00UT.
A possibly related slow
(below 300 km/s) and faint CME front can be detected in SoHO/LASCO C2
images from around 21:12UT. It is directed towards the West and has an
angular extent of around 90 degrees. Due to a datagap in Stereo A COR2 data
there is no more accurate information on the direction of the ejecta.
Given the speed, direction and angular extent of the CME from Earth
perspective no impact on Earth is expected.

Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind saw the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed
stream.
Solar wind speed increased before midnight to around 670 km/s before
declining to around 600 km/s currently. Total magnetic field was at
background values of 2-5 nT with a decaying trend.
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated under the influence
of the high speeds from the transequatorial extension of the Southern
polar coronal hole. A shock related to the August 19 CME could potentially
occur within the next 24 hours but any effects should be small within the
already elevated background solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions saw active periods around 18:00-21:00 UT (both local
K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 4) but were otherwise quiet to unsettled (both local
K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 2-3).
Mainly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected but as solar wind
speeds remain elevated and with possible CME related perturbations
arriving, active periods are possible.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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The EISN plot for August 22, 2018 from Belgium's Royal Observatory remains zero.
Cf. http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
Below is the text message from Belgium. Notice that the Standard Deviation is also at zero now with 11 outliers eliminated.

2018 08 19 2018.632 18 5.2 31 35
2018 08 20 2018.634 16 2.8 26 30
2018 08 21 2018.637 16 2.2 29 35
2018 08 22 2018.640 0 0.0 20 31

The GOES X-ray flux still remains largely in the A0 range with very infrequent A1 spikes.
Cf. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Here is the daily comment for August 22, 2018, from Belgium's Royal Observatory. There have been two CMEs. See the bolding below.

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with X-ray flux below B level
throughout the period. The only region on disk (NOAA AR 2719) is in decay and X-ray flux is
expected to remain below C level.

Reanalysis of the CME of August 20, which was reported yesterday, shows an
additional CME front extending over the South. The angular width of the CME
is thus much larger than initially analysed and although faint, it could be
classified as partial halo CME. Together with the location of the
associated filament eruption it is thus likely that a component is Earth-
bound.
With an uncertain speed of between 300 and 500 km/s an arrival is
anticipated between noon of August 24 and noon of August 25
.
No additional new CME onsets were observed in coronagraphic data.

Solar proton flux is at background levels and expected to remain so.

Solar wind speed has decayed from just under 600 km/s to around 450 km/s
currently
, while total magnetic field was nominal between 2-5nT.
It thus seems that the influence of the Southern negative polarity coronal
hole is fading more rapidly than initially anticipated.
Solar wind conditions may, however, become enhanced again with later today
still a small possibility of a shock related to the August 19 CME and from
noon august 24 onwards the possible arrival of the August 20 CME. Effects
in terms of solar wind speed should be small but the magnetic field may see
significant effects of the passing cloud.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both K Dourbes and NOAA Kp
1-3) and are initially expected to remain so. Should the August 20 CME
carry significant Southward magnetic field, minor geomagnetic storms are
possible from noon August 24 onwards.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2719 is back.

Viewing NASA solar images at The Sun Today reveals that AR2719 has become visible once again and is now geo-centered.
Cf: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

It is too early to tell how the consortium of astronomers at Belgium will respond or what the EISN will be for August 23, 2018. At 1230 UT, Belgium will release another commentary.

:Issued: 2018 Aug 23 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 235 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Aug 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2719 S06E03 133 0010 Axx 01 02 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
2718 S06W64 200
II. Regions Due to Return 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

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