As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Non-political secular news and anything else (within the boundaries of Christian morality and good taste) that is not on-topic in any other section. Any politically charged material must be posted in the private Controversial Political and Social Issues forum; please PM admin for access.

Moderators: Maria, phpBB2 - Administrators

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sat 12 June 2004 12:39 am
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 2 July 2018 5:33 am

It's the beginning of July, so we can now compare the EISN plots with Belgium's corrections.

Belgium's corrections are shown in the top plot, while the EISN plot for the month of June follows.

Notice that there are only nine spotless days in the corrected plot whereas the uncorrected EISN plot showed 10 spotless days.
Attachments
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 07-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 07-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (40.58 KiB) Viewed 77 times
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 06-30-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 06-30-2018_EISNcurrent.png (48.79 KiB) Viewed 77 times
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sat 12 June 2004 12:39 am
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 7 July 2018 6:19 am

The spotless sun may have developed a new active region which is starting to appear on the Eastern limb.

This just in from www.spaceweather.com
C-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a minor C1-class solar flare: image. The source appears to be a new active region, probably a sunspot, hiding just behind the sun's eastern limb. Because the explosion was partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun, it was likely stronger than it appeared to be.


Below is an image of this new active region.
solar image_07-07-2018_Might be a new active region on Eastern limb.jpg
solar image_07-07-2018_Might be a new active region on Eastern limb.jpg (150.97 KiB) Viewed 62 times
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sat 12 June 2004 12:39 am
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 7 July 2018 5:13 pm

The new Active Region is still on the far side of the sun. Below is the comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory.
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest
recorded flare was a C-1.6 class flare produced from an Active Region
located on the East limb, peaking at 20:07 UT on 2018-Jul-06. There are no
other significant ARs on the solar disk. The greater than 10MeV proton flux
remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. No Earth directed
CMEs were detected. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next
24 hours, however the AR that is currently rotating on to the solar disk
has the potential to produce further flaring activity.

The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 440 and 520 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 4 and
8.5 nT. The Bz component has fluctuated between -4 and +8 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 1-2 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The small region of patchy coronal hole
located at central latitudes has the potential to enhance solar wind speeds
and geomagnetic activity marginally. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be quiet.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.
Attachments
07-07-2018_at East new AR_ C1.6 at 2007 UT on 07-06-2018_B1.2 at 0451 UT and B1.3 at 1204 UT on 07-07_goes-xray-flux.gif
07-07-2018_at East new AR_ C1.6 at 2007 UT on 07-06-2018_B1.2 at 0451 UT and B1.3 at 1204 UT on 07-07_goes-xray-flux.gif (13.58 KiB) Viewed 56 times
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sat 12 June 2004 12:39 am
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 8 July 2018 1:05 am

From http://www.spaceweather.com

APPROACHING SUNSPOT: Today, the face of the sun is blank. Tomorrow, we may have a sunspot. An new active region is hiding just behind the eastern limb of the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed its magnetic canopy towering over the edge of the solar disk on July 7th:


Image

At the bottom of those magnetic loops probably lies a dark sunspot, which yesterday unleashed a C-class solar flare. Solar rotation is turning the region toward Earth, and it could emerge into view as early as July 8th. Amateur astronomers with backyard solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.


NOAA has not yet affirmed this active region:

Issued: 2018 Jul 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 189 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Jul 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 08 Jul to 10 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sat 12 June 2004 12:39 am
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 8 July 2018 5:38 pm

The Active Region now in view has turned white. The report below explains this phenomenon more completely.

WHITE SUNSPOT: This weekend, observers of the sun have been waiting for something to emerge over the sun's eastern limb. We knew it was there because of a farside solar flare on July 6th. Today it arrived, and it appears to be a white sunspot:

Image

The correct name of this phenomenon is "faculae." It is a cousin of sunspots.

Regular dark sunspots are magnetic islands on the surface of the sun. Magnetic fields in these areas are thousands of times stronger than Earth's magnetic field. Sunspot magnetic fields are so strong, they block the flow of heat from the nuclear furnace below. They appear dark because they are relatively cool compared to their surroundings.

Faculae are also made of magnetic fields. However, the magnetism of faculae is concentrated in much smaller bundles than in sunspots. Instead of blocking heat from below, they essentially form corridors that allow us to see into sun's hot interior, creating an apparent bright spot on the surface of the sun.

It is still possible that a dark core will follow these faculae over the limb in the hours ahead, establishing the region as a normal sunspot group. Stay tuned.


Reference: http://www.spaceweather.com

The Royal Observatory at Belgium's report confirms that there are currently no active sunspots on the solar surface.
It's use of the phrase "recurrent Active Region" may refer to the expected return of AR2713, which has turned into a faculae.
The current GOES X-ray flux plot shows lower solar activity that has flatlined in the A3 to A5 range.

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. A recurrent Active Region (AR) has just rotated
onto the East limb, and has the potential to produce flaring activity. The
greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past
24 hours. No Earth directed CMEs were detected. Solar activity is expected
to remain low over the next 24 hours.


The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 450 and 500 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 5 nT. The
Bz component has fluctuated between -2 and +2 nT. Geomagnetic conditions
ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the
past 24 hours. The small region of patchy coronal hole located at central
latitudes has the potential to enhance solar wind speeds and geomagnetic
activity marginally. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sat 12 June 2004 12:39 am
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 12 July 2018 1:13 am

Record setting two weeks (going on 15 days) without a sunspot. This spotless period started on June 28, 2018 and has continued without an interruption.

This in from http://www.spaceweather.com

TWO WEEKS WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: The sun has been without spots for 14 straight days. To find a longer stretch of blank suns, you have to go all the way back to November of 2009 when the sun was emerging from the deepest solar minimum in a century. However, two weeks without sunspots is not a long time. At the nadir of that century-class solar minimum in 2008, the sun was blank for 52 consecutive days. Conclusion: Solar minimum is just beginning and we have a long way to go.
Attachments
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 07-12-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 07-12-2018_EISNcurrent.png (38.27 KiB) Viewed 39 times
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sat 12 June 2004 12:39 am
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 12 July 2018 2:06 am

Back in 2017 during the month of March, there were 15 continuous days of spotlessness according to Belgium.
Note that Belgium, NASA, and www.spaceweather.com do not always agree on the total days of spotlessness.

Will June-July 2018 have more than 15 continuous days of spotlessness?
Attachments
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png (37.28 KiB) Viewed 38 times
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.


Return to “Miscellaneous Issues”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 3 guests