As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 12 May 2018 4:49 am

NOAA's updated report: AR2709 is still transversing the sun as a tiny Alpha that is barely visible on the solar disc.

Issued: 2018 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 132 Issued at 0030Z on 12 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2709 N05E24 035 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2708 S10W41 100
II. Regions Due to Return 12 May to 14 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 15 May 2018 1:13 am

According to NOAA, both sunspots have now decayed to H-alpha plages.
Thus, the estimated sunspot number for May 15, 2018, will be zero.

:Issued: 2018 May 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 135 Issued at 0030Z on 15 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
2708 S10W83 102
2709 N04W17 036

II. Regions Due to Return 15 May to 17 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 21 May 2018 7:32 am

The sun has been spotless from May 14 until now, May 21, 2018.

An active region just made an appearance at the Eastern limb of the sun.

I predict that this active region will quickly decay into an H-alpha plage as have the other recent sunspot areas.

During these solar minimums, there are cosmic rays from the universe that bombard the earth as the earth's magnetic shield, which protects us during the solar maximums, is down. One can feel the burning sun more intensely. Not only man suffers, but also the plants. Notice how the leaves are showing burn marks.
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solar image_05-21-2018_new active region + coronal holes.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 22 May 2018 6:29 am

Something was caught flaring in the B levels. Was it the newly appearing and rapidly growing Beta AR2710?

Yesterday, there was one tiny core region in AR2710, now there are two.

05-22-2018_New Beta AR 2710_B2.8_ at 0507 UT  goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
05-22-2018_New Beta AR 2710_B2.8_ at 0507 UT goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.61 KiB) Viewed 188 times


This in from NOAA:

:Issued: 2018 May 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 142 Issued at 0030Z on 22 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2710 N16E64 223 0020 Cro 02 02 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 22 May to 24 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 22 May 2018 6:49 pm

This in from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels. Catania sunspot group 82 (NOAA
AR 2710) produced one B2.8 flare peaking at 05:07 UT today.
No earth-
directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with some
probability for C-class flares.

The solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s over the past 24 hrs.
Interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 5 nT till 11:00 UT
today (recorded by ACE). Later interplanetray magnetic filed magnitude
gradually increased till 9 nT, simutaniously Bz component decreased from -2
nT till -5 nT. Solar wind parameters variations may increase from now due
to the expected influence of the recurrent positive polarity northern polar
coronal hole. Solar wind speeds may increase till about 500 km/s later
today or tomorrow (accodring to STEREO data). Geomagnetic conditions have
been quiet over the past 24 hrs. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions can be
expected today and tomorrow. Isolated episodes of active conditions are
also not excluded.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 013, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.


We just had another significant solar flare, B8.9, which peaked at 1459 UT (7:59 PDT) per NOAA (see below). Most likely this flare was from AR2710. Before these two flares, the goes X-ray flux was almost flat lined, which is typical of a deep solar minimum.

Edited: Belgium confirmed that this B8.9 was from another new active region just rotating into view..

:Created: 2018 May 22 1842 UT
:Date: 2018 05 22
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# Missing data: ////
# Updated every 5 minutes.
# Edited Events for 2018 May 22
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5140 + 0429 0507 0544 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.8 1.0E-03

5150 + 1447 1459 1519 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B8.9 1.2E-03
Attachments
05-22-2018_B8.9_1159 UT_from New Active region on Eastern Limbgoes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
05-22-2018_B8.9_1159 UT_from New Active region on Eastern Limbgoes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (11.02 KiB) Viewed 161 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 22 May 2018 7:06 pm

There is another active region coming around the Eastern Limb of the Sun.

See the solar image below with all the black coronal holes at the poles. AR2710 seems to be decaying as it is smaller.
Attachments
solar image_05-22-2018_Beta 2710 + new active region at East limb.jpg
solar image_05-22-2018_Beta 2710 + new active region at East limb.jpg (133.83 KiB) Viewed 185 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 23 May 2018 2:22 am

AR2710 is still a small Beta, but it has been actively flaring.

:Product: 0523SRS.txt
:Issued: 2018 May 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 143 Issued at 0030Z on 23 May 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2710 N17E52 221 0020 Bxo 05 02 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 23 May to 25 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
Attachments
05-23-2018_Sun actively flaring_with 2 to 3 active regions_goes-xray-flux.gif
05-23-2018_Sun actively flaring_with 2 to 3 active regions_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.56 KiB) Viewed 161 times
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