As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 16 April 2018 9:04 am

Photo taken on April 16, 2018, showing that something is flaring at the NE limb.

This could be an H-alpha plague similar to AR2704, which is now geo-centered. There is always
the possibility that this small flaring region could develop into another active region.
Stay tuned as one never knows if we will have another September event as we did last year.

Notice the dark regions. These are called coronal holes from which solar winds can escape.
People on Ham Radios have difficulty communicating during times of high solar winds.

solar image_04-16-2018_0910  UT_something flaring at NE limb.jpg
solar image_04-16-2018_0910 UT_something flaring at NE limb.jpg (132.97 KiB) Viewed 392 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 17 April 2018 12:36 am

NOAA has given a name to a new active region -- AR2705.

Both AR2704 and AR2705 have decayed to H-alpha plages. However, they could develop rapidly as suddenly as they have decayed.

:Product: 0417SRS.txt
:Issued: 2018 Apr 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 107 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2704 N12W04 033
2705 N17W12 041

II. Regions Due to Return 17 Apr to 19 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 20 April 2018 6:47 am

After a few fleeting sunspots, a new Beta sunspot, AR2706, has emerged on the NE limb of the solar disc. See the image below.

solar image_04-20-2018_0626 UT_AR2706 Beta_NE Limb.jpg
solar image_04-20-2018_0626 UT_AR2706 Beta_NE Limb.jpg (151.25 KiB) Viewed 367 times


In this new solar cycle 25, the majority of sunspots will be found in the Southern hemisphere, but this has not yet become a consistent pattern. When we see the majority of sunspots coming from the south, then this may be a sign that the solar minimum may be coming to a close with the peak of a new solar maximum. Since this has not happened yet, this solar minimum is far from over. Belgium is now predicting that the solar minimum may bottom out in May 2019 or last even longer.

Below is the smoothed monthly sunspots showing where we are in April 2018 in this current solar minimum. As we approach the end of April 2018, Belgium's International Estimated Sunspot Number (EISN) now appears to be approaching 4.5 to 5. The ISN for April 1, 2018 was 2.5.

monthly-sunspot-numbers-smoothed-2018-04.png
monthly-sunspot-numbers-smoothed-2018-04.png (140.54 KiB) Viewed 367 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 21 April 2018 12:38 am

Beta AR2706 is increasing in size. It has sparked several B flares today.
H-alpha plages AR2704 and AR2705 are still present, but are nearing the western limb.

See the GOES X-ray Flux below (3 day chart)

04-20-2018_goes-xray-flux.gif
04-20-2018_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.9 KiB) Viewed 361 times


Here is the report from NOAA:

:Issued: 2018 Apr 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 111 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2706 N04E56 280 0040 Cao 07 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2704 N12W60 036
2705 N17W68 044
II. Regions Due to Return 21 Apr to 23 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 21 April 2018 3:14 am

Here is a recent solar image of AR2706 on the left side.

solar image_04-21-2018_0256 UT_Beta AR2606_ NE sector.jpg
solar image_04-21-2018_0256 UT_Beta AR2606_ NE sector.jpg (150.95 KiB) Viewed 359 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 22 April 2018 3:48 am

From NOAA: We now have two active regions: one in the North (an increasing Beta AR2706) and the other in the South (Alpha AR2707).

:Issued: 2018 Apr 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 112 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Apr 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2706 N04E43 280 0110 Dao 08 13 Beta
2707 S10E29 294 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
2704 N12W74 037
2705 N17W82 045


The sunspot count has increased dramatically.
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-22-2018_EISN current.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-22-2018_EISN current.png (43.48 KiB) Viewed 354 times


From NASA's pictures at The Sun Today , it appears that AR2707 is very fleeting and might be already decaying. Time will tell.
In the photo below, AR2707 is a small area just south and to the right of the monster AR2706.
Attachments
solar image_04-22-2018_Beta AR2706_Alpha AR2707.jpg
solar image_04-22-2018_Beta AR2706_Alpha AR2707.jpg (211.81 KiB) Viewed 355 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 22 April 2018 8:41 pm

Here is the current Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) plot for April 2018.

With the advent of the active regions, AR2706 and AR2707, the EISN has increased to approximately 6 or 6.5. AR2707 is already showing signs of decay. If AR2706 does not decay, but maintains its sunspot numbers as it transits across the sun, then the EISN will keep increasing.

Notice that for today, April 22, 2018, the reported sunspots in AR2706 have already declined from 30 to 21. However, six outliers have been deleted from this tally. In other words, although 36 astronomical stations have reported data, only 30 of those have been accepted. The standard deviation is quite high at 3.6, but yesterday, the standard deviation was even higher at 6.7.
2018 04 01 2018.248 0 4.5 16 22
2018 04 02 2018.251 0 0.0 26 27
2018 04 03 2018.253 0 0.0 27 30
2018 04 04 2018.256 0 0.0 27 29
2018 04 05 2018.259 0 0.0 36 38
2018 04 06 2018.262 0 0.0 37 37
2018 04 07 2018.264 0 0.0 31 31
2018 04 08 2018.267 0 0.0 34 36
2018 04 09 2018.270 0 0.0 20 25
2018 04 10 2018.273 7 5.9 34 35
2018 04 11 2018.275 0 0.0 30 32
2018 04 12 2018.278 9 6.9 25 26
2018 04 13 2018.281 15 1.5 17 24
2018 04 14 2018.284 0 0.0 22 34
2018 04 15 2018.286 7 6.6 23 25
2018 04 16 2018.289 12 1.7 24 39
2018 04 17 2018.292 11 1.5 30 41
2018 04 18 2018.295 0 0.0 30 39
2018 04 19 2018.297 12 1.4 25 43
2018 04 20 2018.300 16 2.5 38 44
2018 04 21 2018.303 25 6.7 29 31
2018 04 22 2018.305 21 3.6 30 36 - notice that 6 outliers have been deleted


See the previous post and compare the two EISN charts. This is to be expected as the monthly numbers will jump and fall. As the solar minimum deepens during May 2018, the EISN will most likely fall once again, perhaps to a deeper low, or it could rise again. Again, time will tell.

For comparison, in March 2018 the ISN was 2.5.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-22-2018_EISN current.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-22-2018_EISN current.png (43.57 KiB) Viewed 347 times


solar image_04-22-2018_Beta  2706_2056 UT.jpg
solar image_04-22-2018_Beta 2706_2056 UT.jpg (152.1 KiB) Viewed 347 times
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