As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 12 February 2018 5:08 am

Noaa confirms that Beta AR2699 is increasing in size and may unleash an M-Class solar flare within the next 24 to 48 hours.
NOAA also confirmed that there was a long sustained C Class solar flare emitted from AR2699 starting around 0000 UT, peaking at 0135 UT, and continuing even at 0500 UT. Here is a solar image from NASA showing AR2699 still erupting at 0500 UT.

solar image_02-12-2018_0500 UT_AR2699.jpg
solar image_02-12-2018_0500 UT_AR2699.jpg (12.14 KiB) Viewed 340 times


It peaked around 0135 UT as seen in the GOES plot below. However, its profile looks more this could be a hyder flare associated with AR2699. Indeed, as http://www.spaceweather.com just revealed, with AR2699's constantly changing complex magnetic structures, this could well be a magnetic reconnection:

spaceweather.com wrote:Rapid changes in the appearance of a sunspot mean one thing:
Its magnetic field is changing rapidly as well. Tangled magnetic fields
can criss, cross, and explode--a process known as "magnetic
reconnection." Solar flares in the magnetic canopy of AR2699 are likely
on Feb. 12th.


02-12-2018_Possible hyder flare_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
02-12-2018_Possible hyder flare_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (9.81 KiB) Viewed 340 times


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 43 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Feb 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2699 S07W14 167 0230 Dai 10 14 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z Feb
Nmbr Location Lo
2698 S03W58 211
II. Regions Due to Return 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 12 February 2018 5:36 am

Below are two recent photos from NASA showing AR2699. .

02-12-2018_Beta AR2699_increasing complex magnetic canopy_0445 UT.jpg
02-12-2018_Beta AR2699_increasing complex magnetic canopy_0445 UT.jpg (15.93 KiB) Viewed 339 times


The second photo is greatly enlarged showing the size of the sunspots in comparison with the earth.
This image is copied from http://www.spaceweather.com
Image

Below is a video from NASA showing the phenomenal growth of AR2699

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/usermo ... _hmiic.mp4
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 13 February 2018 9:13 pm

As Beta AR2699 approaches the Western limb of the solar disc, if an M-Class flare were to occur with a 15 percent chance, any CME released could be geodirected.

Around the world, astronomers associated with Belgium's Royal Observatory have given different reports regarding the daily number of sunspots in Beta AR2699. Take a look at the EISN plot at http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

Below is the EISN text message from Belgium along with my comment in the right margin.

2018 02 01 2018.086 0 0.0 21 22
2018 02 02 2018.089 0 0.0 16 22 -- disagreement with 6/22 (27%) listed as outliers
2018 02 03 2018.092 0 0.0 16 18
2018 02 04 2018.095 0 0.0 22 33 -- disagreement with 11/33 (33%) listed as outliers
2018 02 05 2018.097 15 2.2 34 36
2018 02 06 2018.100 17 2.6 23 26
2018 02 07 2018.103 22 3.6 31 33
2018 02 08 2018.105 25 3.8 27 33 -- high st. dev. of 3.8 with 6 listed as outliers
2018 02 09 2018.108 26 2.8 22 26 -- 4 listed as outliers
2018 02 10 2018.111 28 3.3 15 18
2018 02 11 2018.114 30 2.7 19 22
2018 02 12 2018.116 29 4.6 25 28 -- high st. dev. of 4.6 with 3 listed as outliers
2018 02 13 2018.119 26 4.0 21 26 -- high st. dev. of 4.0 with 5 listed as outliers

~~~~~

Most probably, as of today, Belgium will only list two spotless days for February as Feb. 2 and 4 might be disregarded.
Thus as of February 13, 2018, the average International Sunspot Number might be around 18 or 19.

With the expected disappearance of AR2699 around February 17, will the sun return to its declining number of sunspots?
If so, the EISN will drop dramatically.

Stay tuned.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 15 February 2018 8:06 pm

Comments from Belgium's Royal Observatory at 1230 UT:

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dso;
Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence
and cancellation.
The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background
levels over the past 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) have been detected. Over the next 24 hours there is a reasonable
probability that flaring activity will reach C-class levels with a small
probability of M-class flares.

The solar wind speed fluctuated around 310 km/s over the past 24 hours, but
jumped to 350 km /s this morning with the arrival of a shock front. The
total magnetic field strength has remained around 3 nT, but began
fluctuating between 3 and 9 nT in the last few hours. The Bz component has
fluctuated between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp
index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours.
The above mentioned shock front arrived at 07:55 UT this morning. The
sudden increase in the solar wind speed (from about 310 to 350 km/s) was
observed simultaneously with an increase in the density, temperature and
the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (from about 2 nT to 7 nT).
Since the solar wind speed was, and is still rather low, and the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly positive, the
shock arrival did not induce disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The shock is
probably related to the CME produced at 01:25 UT on 12-Feb-2018, which was
anticipated to arrive at approximately 12:00 UT today. A large coronal hole
that passed the central meridian a couple of days ago may also be the
cause, however the associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive
later today / tomorrow. Enhanced solar wind conditions from the coronal
hole and CME arrival are expected to cause geomagnetic conditions to be
unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 016, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.


Later development: http://www.spaceweather.com announced that a CME did strike the earth around 0800 UT. Cause: AR2699. This CME was from a very long sustained C-class solar flare, which occurred on Feb. 12, 2018, and which lasted more than six hours.

CME IMPACT
: An interplanetary shock wave hit Earth's magnetic field today (Feb. 15th) at approximately 0800 UT. It was probably the leading edge of the CME described below. So far a geomagnetic storm has not developed. However, bright auroras are dancing around the Arctic Circle. "It is not even dark yet and there are very large coronas overhead," reports Chad Blakley of Lights over Lapland in Abisko, Sweden. ...


Image

p.s. I do not know why the camera photo is dated April 4, 2015.
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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 16 February 2018 10:29 am

Reviewing the Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) text msg from Belgium,
the raw data shows:

For Feb. 1 through 4, there were no sunspots reported.
eisn = estimated international sunspot number
std = standard deviation
stations reporting:
    first number refers to station reports that are acceptable
    second number lists all the stations reporting, including outliers that were rejected

For example, on 02/05/2018, there were 34 stations reports that were accepted of the 37 stations which sent in reports. The EISN was 15 with a standard deviation of 2.2. Three station reports (37-34 = 3) were rejected as outliers.

Date . . . . . . . . . . . . eisn std stations reporting
2018 02 05 2018.097 15 2.2 34 37
2018 02 06 2018.100 17 2.5 24 27
2018 02 07 2018.103 22 3.6 32 34
2018 02 08 2018.105 25 3.8 27 33
2018 02 09 2018.108 26 2.8 22 27
2018 02 10 2018.111 27 3.9 16 19
2018 02 11 2018.114 30 2.7 19 22
2018 02 12 2018.116 29 4.6 27 30
2018 02 13 2018.119 25 3.6 21 27
2018 02 14 2018.122 22 4.1 24 31
2018 02 15 2018.125 17 3.0 22 25
2018 02 16 2018.127 13 0.9 15 17


Total number of sunspots = 258
Currently: 258/16 days = 16.1 EISN

If we have no more sunspots for February,
258/28 days = 9.2 EISN [This would be the lowest EISN possible for February.]

However, one never knows what will happen.
A new sunspot could appear suddenly
only to disappear within a day or two.
Then we could have another September 2017
surprise where a sunspot rapidly developed
and unleashed two X flares.

On Feb. 17, AR2699 is expected to depart
for its two week transit on the far side of the sun.
Perhaps it will return in early March 2019.
Will it be stronger? Stay tuned.
Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 17 February 2018 12:39 am

Alert from www.spaceweather.com regarding the magnetic storms and AR2699's CME (Feb. 12, 2018):

CHANCE OF MAGNETIC STORMS: NOAA forecasters say there is a 55% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms today as Earth moves through the wake of a passing CME. Boosting the odds of geomagnetic activity is an incoming stream of solar wind. Estimated time of arrival: Feb. 16-17. Arctic sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. Free: Aurora Alerts

CME IMPACT SPARKS POLAR AURORAS: Yesterday, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field. "Right from the minute it got dark, our skies were alive with dancing aurora," reports tour guide Marianne Bergli of Tromsø, Norway. This is one of dozens of pictures she took between sunset and 3:30 the next morning:

Image

"What an amaz​i​n​g​ night,' she says. "The CME arrived as predicted by Spaceweather.com, and something tells me there​ i​s much more to come."

Indeed, there is more. A stream of high-speed solar wind flowing from a wide hole in the sun's atmosphere is following close on the heels of the CME. It could produce a new round of geomagnetic activity and polar auroras when it arrives on Feb. 16th or 17th.


Here is NOAA's comment regarding the decay of AR2699 as it departs from our view.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 48 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Feb 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2699 S08W82 169 0040 Hax 03 02 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Feb
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Luke » Mon 19 February 2018 3:43 am

The face of the sun is calm today: http://www.spaceweather.com/

May everyone have a calm Lent this year.


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