As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 3 December 2017 10:55 am

We have not reached the lowest ISN yet. During those days, when there could be 30
or more spotless days in a row, the X-ray plot map drops down into the "basement" A range,
less than A0, where the sun flatlines.

Currently it is A3 in the GOES 15 X-Ray Flux 1.0 to 8.0 A.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 6 December 2017 9:13 pm

Today's comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

The spotless days have been broken by a bipolar sunspot group that is geo-centered.
Current GOES X-ray plots do not show any active B or C-Class flaring.

This new active region has 13 sunspots.

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2017 Dec 06 12:30UTC

The solar activity remained very quiet. No flare has been recorded in the
past 24-hour. One bipolar sunspot (Catania sunspot group 65) has just
emerged. Quiet flaring conditions are expected.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The Earth remained under the high speed solar wind stream (HSS) associated
with the Coronal Hole (which has crossed the central meridian on Dec 01).
The wind speed has continued to gradually increase from 550 to 630 km/s,
and is currently showing a slight declining to 540 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude showed a slow decline from 11 nT to the current
value of 4 nT, and the Bz component fluctuated between -8 and 6 nT to
return to its nominal values between -4 and 4 nT.

Disturbed geomagnetic conditions were observed due to the fast solar wind
and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field reaching -8 nT. A
minor storm was observed by the local stations at Dourbes (K=5 from 15:00
to 17:00 UT on Dec 05), while NOAA reported Kp between 3 and 4. The high
speed stream is expected to persist and new minor geomagnetic storms cannot
be excluded, especially if Bz component remains negative for longer periods
of time.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 7 December 2017 12:45 am

According to NOAA, we have a new Beta active region, AR 2690.
This is also the one mentioned by Belgium earlier.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 341 Issued at 0030Z on 07 Dec 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2690 N07W17 332 0010 Bxo 02 03 Beta
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 7 December 2017 6:38 pm

Update from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2017 Dec 07 12:30UTC
The solar activity remained quiet over the past 24 hours. No C-class flare
and above have been recorded. The bipolar sunspot (Catania sunspot group
65, NOAA Active Region 2690) has produced one small B-class flare. Quiet
flaring conditions are expected for the next 24-hour period.


No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The Earth remained under the influence of the solar wind stream associated
with the Coronal Hole
(which has crossed the central meridian on Dec 01).
The wind speed has gradually decreased from 550 km/s to 500 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 6 nT, and the Bz
component fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT. The solar wind conditions are
expected to continue to decline and return to nominal conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle (local K Dourbes 1-3, NOAA Kp
2-3) due to the solar wind stream associated with the Coronal Hole. The
conditions are expected to return to the nominal level as the solar wind is
declining.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 8 December 2017 6:37 am

The new Active Region 2690 is rapidly decaying per NOAA:
Most likely, according to Spaceweather.com, it will decay to a plage sometime tomorrow.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 342 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Dec 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2690 N06W32 334 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 8 December 2017 8:53 pm

From Belgium's Royal Observatory: We are once again experiencing a spotless sun as
AR 2690 is now reduced to a plage.

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2017 Dec 08 12:30UTC

The solar activity remained quiet over the past 24 hours. No flare has been
recorded. The unique sunspot (Catania sunspot group 65, NOAA Active Region
2690) on the visible disc showed a decay in magnetic complexity. Quiet
flaring conditions are expected for the next 24-hour period.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed has continued to gradually decrease from 530 km/s to
460 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 5 nT,
and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT. The solar wind
conditions are expected to continue to decline and return to nominal
conditions by tomorrow. A narrow northern polar coronal hole that extends
down up to latitude 10-degree North is currently facing Earth. The high
speed solar wind stream associated with this coronal hole is expected to
reach Earth by Dec 11.

The geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to unsettle with K-Dourbes
and Kp ranging between 1 and 3, except on Dec 07 at 15:00 UT the local
station at Dourbes reported active geomagnetic conditions (K-Dourbes = 4)
for a short duration. The geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet for
the next following days until the arrival of the high speed stream on Dec
11.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 9 December 2017 3:19 am

NOAA has finally admitted that AR2690 is now a plage.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 343 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Dec 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z Dec
Nmbr Location Lo
2690 N06W46 335
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