As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 14 November 2017 10:41 pm

Below is a link to the latest International Sunspot Number Plot from Belgium's Royal Observatory.
Notice that November 14, 2017, with 15 sunspots, has broken the chain of 13 days of a spotless sun.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 15 November 2017 2:07 am

NOAA has declared that this Southern Active Region (AR2687) is now a Beta.
The Sun Now shows a huge area with several dark cores.
This means that we could see some C-flaring and possibly even an M-class solar flare, but that is unlikely now that we are in a solar minimum.

http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 115SRS.txt
:Issued: 2017 Nov 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 319 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Nov 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2687 S08E64 181 0050 Cao 07 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Nov
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 15 November 2017 7:28 pm

The most recent comment from the Royal Observatory in Belgium:

The estimated sunspot number is 14. AR2687 is now a Beta, which could deliver B and C-class solar flares.

http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: There were no C-class and even no B-class flares reported during
last 24 hours. The only active region presently observed on the visible
side of the solar disc is Catania sunspot group 63 (NOAA AR 2687) which has
beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field and might be source
of the B-class and isolated C-class flares (probability of only about 7%)
in the coming hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24
hours, and the solar protons remained at background level.

The solar wind speed is presently about 400 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude is about 8 nT.

Due to longer intervals of the negative value of the Bz component,
unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were reported in the late
evening of November 14 (local station at Dourbes reported interval with K=4
and NOAA reported interval of Kp=3).

The fast flow associated with the low latitude extension of the northern
polar coronal hole (reached central meridian in the early morning of
November 11) is expected to arrive at the Earth today.
The arrival of the
fast solar wind migh induce disturbed geomagnetic conditions (up to Kp=4).
The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled, and we expect
unsettled to active conditions later today or early morning tomorrow.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 17 November 2017 5:59 am

Beta AR 2687 continues to develop according to NOAA. It has unleashed two B-class solar flares within the last 24 hours.

However, tonight AR2687, as shown at The Sun Now at 10 PM PST, does not look too threatening, as it seems to be decaying. See the most recent NASA satellite photo: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

Things change from moment to moment. Will we have another September surprise with more sudden X-Class flaring? Probably not. Both spaceweather.com and the Belgium Royal Observatory report that Beta AR2687 is stable.

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 321 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Nov 2017

I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2687 S08E39 178 0090 Cao 12 05 Beta


http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 117SRS.txt
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 17 November 2017 6:30 pm

Observing the sun, see The Sun Now, there appears to be a plage or possibly an active region developing on the northwestern side of the sun. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

From Belgium's Royal Observatory at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is low, with only few low B-class flares
reported. All reported flares originated from the Catania sunspot group 63
(NOAA AR 2687) which maintains the beta configuration of its photospheric
magnetic field. We do not expect significant change of flaring activity in
the coming hours. During last 24 hours there were no Earth directed CMEs
reported, and the solar protons remained at background level.
The solar wind speed presently amounts about 430 km/s (its maximum value
within the last 24 hours was about 510 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude is stable having the value of about 4 nT.
The fast solar wind associated with the equatorial coronal hole which
reached central meridian in the early morning of November 16 is expected to
arrive at the Earth on November 19.
The fast flow associated with the low latitude extension of the southern
polar coronal hole (reached central meridian in the late evening of
November 13) is expected to arrive at the Earth this evening.
The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled, we expect
unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions later today due to the arrival
of the fast solar wind.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 024, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 17 November 2017 10:22 pm

The plage in the NW area of the sun seems to have disappeared.

Meanwhile, AR2687 seems to be diminishing yet the sunspot number, 24, seems to be holding.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 18 November 2017 2:51 am

NOAA has reported that the Active Region in the NW is now a Beta, with AR2687 now an Alpha.
:Issued: 2017 Nov 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 322 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Nov 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2687 S08E31 175 0060 Hax 04 04 Alpha
2688 N11W32 238 0010 Bxo 04 02 Beta


The Sun Now has released this photo from NASA showing the new AR2688 in the NW hemisphere of the sun.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0211.jpg
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