As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 4 October 2017 2:15 am

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 277 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Oct 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2682 S10W47 126 0120 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2683 N13W32 111 0330 Cko 04 04 Beta (this Active Region is increasing in size)
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Oct
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 04 Oct to 06 Oct
Nmbr Lat Lo
2680 N08 336 (an old sunspot may return)


http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 004SRS.txt

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 278 Issued at 0030Z on 05 Oct 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2682 S10W61 127 0130 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2683 N13W45 111 0300 Cko 06 06 Beta


Notice that Beta AR2683 has increased in size.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 5 October 2017 6:17 pm

Here is the latest comment from the Royal Observatory of Belgium: http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

Solar activity was at very low levels. The two visible sunspot
groups, NOAA 2683 (Catania 57) and NOAA 2682 (Catania 56), produced 2 low-
level B-class flares each. NOAA 2683 displayed a moderate size increase of
some small opposite polarity sunspots south of the main spot
, whereas NOAA
2682 still features a long filament to the east and north of the main spot.
No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Fri 6 October 2017 3:56 am

According to NOAA, AR2683 has once again declined in area and AR2682 (formerly the monster AR2673) has not only decayed, but also is in the process of leaving this side of the sun.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 279 Issued at 0030Z on 06 Oct 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2682 S10W74 127 0120 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2683 N13W58 111 0280 Cko 05 05 Beta


http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 006SRS.txt
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 7 October 2017 12:24 am

AR2682 (former AR2673) is at the West Limb of the Sun and appears ready to unleash something big and bad.
Notice the arches, and also notice that the rest of the Sun is aglow with AR2683 also flaring.

From NOAA:

Both sunspot areas are now listed as Alphas.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 280 Issued at 0030Z on 07 Oct 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2682 S11W87 127 0120 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2683 N13W71 111 0270 Hkx 05 01 Alpha
Attachments
10-07-2017_The Sun Aglow AR2682 flaring on West Limb_0511 UT.jpg
10-07-2017_The Sun Aglow AR2682 flaring on West Limb_0511 UT.jpg (133.93 KiB) Viewed 235 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 10 October 2017 6:34 am

Although the sun has been spotless for two days now, it does not mean that the sun is not affecting us.

We are due for higher solar winds due to a huge coronal hole.

This coronal hole is visible in the post I made above on October 7, 2017. Look at the dark area.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 21 October 2017 1:41 am

After almost 13 days of spotlessness, the sun has once again erupted with an M1.1 today at 2328 UT (October 20, 2017). Before the M1.1 flare, there were three B-Class solar flares.

Edited Events for 2017 Oct 20

#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1450 + 0006 0049 0101 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.4 4.3E-04 2685

1460 + 1352 1403 1409 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.4 2.7E-04 2685

1470 + 2245 2253 2258 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.9 2.0E-04 2685

1490 + 2310 2328 2337 G15 5 XRA 1-8A M1.1 8.8E-03 2685


ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/eve ... events.txt

Here is a screen shot of the impulsive X-ray. More than likely it is not directed toward earth. And most probably it was unleashed by the former Active Region known as AR2673 and then AR2682. This is the third time that this particular Active Region is visiting us.

10-20-2017_M1.1_2328 UT_former AR2673 -  2682 returns_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
10-20-2017_M1.1_2328 UT_former AR2673 - 2682 returns_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.43 KiB) Viewed 155 times


And below is a screen shot of the sun, where returning Active Region 2682 is just barely visible on the left rim of the sun in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, there is another returning sunspot, Former AR2683 that still is behind the sun and not quite in view, but one can see the loops of this active region shooting out from behind the sun.
solar image_10-21-2017_AR 2673 - 2682 at left limb returns unleashing an M1.1 at 2328 UT on 10-20-2017.jpg
solar image_10-21-2017_AR 2673 - 2682 at left limb returns unleashing an M1.1 at 2328 UT on 10-20-2017.jpg (136.44 KiB) Viewed 155 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 21 October 2017 8:56 pm

Notice how a satellite is named "solar demon."

From the East limb, returning NOAA region 2682 produced a long
duration M1.1 flare peaking at 23:28 UT on October 20. An associated
dimming was detected by Solar Demon, and an associated Type II radio burst
was observed by Palehua at 23:35 UT with a corresponding speed of 344 km/s.
SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and STEREO COR2 A have observed an associated bright
CME, first seen in LASCO C2 at 00:00 UT on October 21, from the northeast
to the southeast. Analysis of COR2 A jplots revealed a plane of sky speed
of about 385 km/s, yielding a full speed of 770 km/s. Due to the position
of the source, this CME will not be geoeffective. C flares are likely in
the next 24 hours (70% probability), with a chance for an M flare (30%
probability). No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed
in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at nominal levels.

A small, fast forward shock in the solar wind occurred at 5:16 UT on
October 21. Solar wind speed registered by DSCOVR jumped from about 340 to
365 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
jumped from about 4 to 6 nT. Current solar wind speed is about 360 km/s and
current IMF magnitude is about 8.5 nT. The IMF was directed away from the
Sun until it started pointing towards the Sun around 7:40 UT on October 21.
Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1
and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. There is a chance for active
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) on October 21. Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 22 and 23.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

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