As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 1 May 2017 7:00 pm

Belgium's manipulations continue. Below is the SILSO EISN plot for April 30, 2017.
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-30-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-30-2017_EISNcurrent.png (49.31 KiB) Viewed 310 times

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 05-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 05-01-2017_EISNcurrent.png (42.13 KiB) Viewed 310 times

And above is the newly manipulated EISN plot that was done on May 1, 2017.
Notice the elimination of one of the spotless days, on April 9, 2017, which had an original range of 0 to 3, but which has now been replaced with an approximate EISN of 12.
This is a huge discrepancy. The standard deviation on April 9, 2017 was listed as 0.0 with data given as "0". However, I noticed from SILSO's daily text data that there was data for April 9, 2017 from 20 reporting stations that were eliminated as outliers.

      Real date/countdown sp std sr sa
      2017 04 09 2017.270 0 0.0 31 51

      0 = sp = estimated sunspot number
      0.0 = std = standard deviation
      31 = sr = stations reporting
      51 = sa = stations available

      The data of 51 stations was available for 04/09/2017
      But only 31 stations were reported for 04/09/2017

      This is a difference of 20, so 20 stations had their data eliminated as outliers (data that is too high or too low to fit a standard bell curve). This is unscientific and insane. This cherry picking of data should not be tolerated. If data shows that there are sunspots, then why eliminate that data? This information should have been brought to light much earlier than waiting until May 1, 2017 to doctor the evidence.

There are several other data manipulations, but they fall within the standard deviation.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Barbara » Tue 2 May 2017 2:34 am

Thanks for explaining what outliers are. Now I understand better.
Good for you, Maria, for seeing this falsification of data. That is truly alarming. One wonders how many other pieces of data across the board are faked to produce the desired agenda ? Probably this is why I tune out statistics when I read anything about the results of 'studies'.

That is good you are keeping a sharp eye on this. The Belgian laboratory seems to be quite slippery, eh ?

On the previous post, that sun looks spectacular with the golden arches. I kept looking for awhile at the picture. How dynamic ; it makes the sun appear to be boiling away right before one's eyes.

Is the ultraviolet light mentioned the same color as the rest of these hues portrayed ? Or is not visible to our eyes ?

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 2 May 2017 7:31 pm

If we were to look directly at the sun (which we should never do), it would blind us.

In the past and still in the present, scientists projected the image of the sun onto paper to look at sunspots.

These awesome images are taken by precise scientific instruments to capture the sun's images at different wave lengths, which lets us see the sunspots more clearly. In addition, we can see other features such as the coronal holes that have created such beautiful auroras lately.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 15 May 2017 3:40 am

During this month of May, we have had several spotless days, but when we do have a sunspot or two, they are very low in number so that the average Sunspot Number is hovering around 12.
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 05-15-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 05-15-2017_EISNcurrent.png (47.07 KiB) Viewed 269 times


The month of May most likely will have the lowest sunspot number so far this year.

Below is a current image of the sun. Notice that there is a former sunspot cluster starting to face the earth. Will this put an end to the spotless days until June? From what I have recently observed, just as soon as a former sunspot cluster faces earth, it rapidly decays into insignificance. In the next few days, we will know for sure. My educated guess is that tomorrow or the next day will show an increase in solar activity, but then this sunspot area will rapidly decay after a day or so.
solar image_05-15-2017_0255 UTC.jpg
solar image_05-15-2017_0255 UTC.jpg (133.63 KiB) Viewed 269 times
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sun 28 May 2017 11:45 pm

May has been mostly quiet, but there is a huge departing Beta sunspot #2659, which has unleashed a number of B and C flares. 2659 can be seen on the far right hand side. As a result, the sunspot number for May will be in the low 20s, so it is not the lowest of the year.

Notice the newly developing sunspot on the far left side, also notice its beautiful heart-shaped flaring -- a valentine in space.

solar image_05-28-2017 showing departing 2659 and a return.jpg
solar image_05-28-2017 showing departing 2659 and a return.jpg (161.12 KiB) Viewed 234 times


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports -- within 15 minutes (at 0000 UTC) a new page will be started for Monday, May 29, 2017.

5510 + 0055 0100 0103 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.8 1.2E-04 2659

5520 + 0634 0639 0651 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.7 4.2E-04 2659
5520 + 0637 0638 0644 SVI 3 FLA N11W60 SF ERU 2659

5530 + 0845 0849 0903 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.6 1.5E-04

5540 + 1046 1051 1054 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B8.0 2.0E-04 2659
5540 1050 1051 1053 SVI 3 FLA N13W62 SF ERU 2659

5550 + 1139 1147 1154 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.6 4.0E-04 2659
5550 1145 1146 1156 SVI 3 FLA N13W62 SF ERU 2659

5560 + 1318 1323 1329 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.0 1.7E-04 2659

5570 1422 1425 1430 G13 5 XRA 1-8A B1.6 5.4E-05 2659

5580 + 1542 1552 1557 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.0 1.9E-04 2659

5590 + 1855 1859 1904 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.7 9.7E-05 2659
5590 1858 1858 1902 HOL 3 FLA N15W67 SF DSD 2659

5600 + 1922 1928 1937 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C3.3 1.9E-03 2659
5600 1925 1926 1937 HOL 3 FLA N14W68 SF ERU 2659

5610 + 2305 2313 2326 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.0 9.3E-04 2659
5610 2309 2313 2322 HOL 3 FLA N14W70 SF DSD 2659

If this trend continues with increased C flaring, then we might see an M-class solar flare within the next 24 hours.
NOAA predicts there is a five percent chance of such a flare.
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 30 May 2017 8:02 pm

No M-class solar flares materialized in the past few days, but apparently, old sunspot 2659, which has departed from this side of the sun, is still flaring today.

# Edited Events for 2017 May 30
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5670 + 0401 0407 0415 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.9 1.9E-04

5680 0558 0601 0603 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 2.3E-05

5690 0630 0638 0654 G13 5 XRA 1-8A B1.4 1.7E-04


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports (click this link for updates to the above list)
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Wed 31 May 2017 8:15 pm

Behold a new sunspot comes from behind the sun. Look at the left rim.

solar image_05-31-2017_1956 UT.jpg
solar image_05-31-2017_1956 UT.jpg (158.88 KiB) Viewed 218 times


And just look at all of this recent flaring from departing 2659 and the new sunspot (2661?).

# Edited Events for 2017 May 31
#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5720 + 0211 0216 0219 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.3 1.8E-04

5730 + 0852 0926 0948 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.4 1.2E-03

5740 + 1133 1140 1146 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.4 3.5E-04

5750 + 1440 1445 1450 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.4 1.1E-04

5760 + 1551 1556 1612 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.0 3.1E-04
5760 1554 1557 1604 SVI 3 FLA N07E85 SF ERU

5770 1615 1617 1625 SVI 3 FLA N07E85 SF ERU

5780 + 1723 1731 1736 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.1 1.7E-04

5790 + 1748 1754 1756 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B4.1 1.3E-04

5800 + 1814 1818 1825 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B3.5 1.8E-04

5810 + 1841 1848 1857 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C1.3 7.5E-04


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports
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