As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 8 April 2017 8:37 pm

Sunspot #2644 has rotated around to the far side of the sun. Perhaps it will return around April 17 or 18.

Sunspot #2645 is traveling to the far side of the sun as I type this.

Below is the latest three day plot showing the B and C flares mostly emitted by #2645 with some from #2648.
This plot almost looks like a foreign language written in script. Do not be concerned about the vertical down strokes as these are probably satellite down times.

This is the NOAA explanation: See Details (bottom of page) at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

The GOES X-ray flux 6-hour and three-day plots contain 1 and 5 minute averages, respectively, of solar X-rays in the 1-8 Angstrom (0.1-0.8 nm) and 0.5-4.0 Angstrom (0.05-0.4 nm) passbands. Data from the SWPC Primary GOES X-ray satellite is shown. Some data dropouts occur during satellite eclipses when the moon or Earth comes between the satellite and the sun, especially during the spring and fall. The Eclipse season lasts for about 45 to 60 days and ranges from minutes to just over an hour. The plots on this page update dynamically every minute.
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04-08-2017_Multiple C and B flares_departing sunspot 2645_goes-xray-flux.gif
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 10 April 2017 4:44 am

Ah, we had two days of a spotless sun. Two days of rest this weekend. How providential.

Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-09-2017_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 04-09-2017_EISNcurrent.png (43.07 KiB) Viewed 58 times


However, lo and behold, a new sunspot has just come around the bend -- 2650.

This sunspot is located near the left limb of the sun, and it is a beta. In the image below, one can see the flares coming from it. A beta has the potential of emitting a B or a C-flare. By the way, a miniature size flare is happening as I type this, and it just peaked at B2.7.

The other sunspot #2648 located on the right side of the solar disc has recently decayed, so it is no longer actively flaring, but sunspots have been known to resurrect quite suddenly once they are no longer geo-centered. Stay tuned. I don't think we can ignore it and say that it poses no risks. Look at the active image.

solar image_04-10-2017_0426 UTC.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Mon 17 April 2017 7:15 pm

One or two new sunspots are returning from the far side of the sun and have been actively flaring.
Sunspot 2650 has decayed. Two more sunspots are due to return between April 19 to April 20:
2649 (northern hemisphere) and #2645 (southern

II. Regions Due to Return 18 Apr to 20 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
2649 N14 052
2645 S10 037

Image below is taken from http://www.thesuntoday.org/the-sun-now/
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Tue 18 April 2017 6:22 pm

ACTIVE SUNSPOT RETURNS: During the late hours of April 17th, something hurled a plume of hot gas over the eastern limb of the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the splash:
The source of this activity is probably returning sunspot AR2644. In early April the active region produced a series of M-class solar flares and shortwave radio blackouts. Now, following a two week trip around the farside of the sun, AR2644 is due to return. Amateur astronomers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor the sun's eastern limb for signs of the old sunspot. If it returns with any of its old potency, solar flare activity could increase sharply in the days ahead.


Image

This huge sunspot #2651 has already been labeled a Beta-Gamma, with a ten percent warning that it could unleash an M-class solar flare.

Reference: http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2017

Here are the latest flares recorded by NOAA as the two returning sunspots are now visible on the limb of the sun.

    # Edited Events for 2017 Apr 18 [Updated at 5:32 PM PST (0032 hours UT April 19, 2017)]
    #
    #Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
    #-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    3840 0024 0028 0032 G13 5 XRA 1-8A B2.4 8.1E-05 2651

    3900 + 0218 0222 0226 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.7 5.8E-05 2651

    3920 + 0531 0537 0542 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B5.6 2.3E-04 2651

    3930 0551 0554 0600 G13 5 XRA 1-8A B2.1 8.3E-05 2651

    3940 + 0631 0640 0646 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.9 3.6E-04 2651

    3950 + 0929 0941 0955 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C3.3 3.1E-03 2651

    3960 + 1921 2010 2049 G15 5 XRA 1-8A C5.5 1.6E-02 2651

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar ... nt-reports

Here is the latest solar image from The Sun Now showing the threatening and actively flaring sunspot clusters.
Be prepared in the next coming days for M or even X-class solar flares.

solar image_04-18-2017_1841 UT.jpg
solar image_04-18-2017_1841 UT.jpg (167.5 KiB) Viewed 33 times


Crunching numbers based on the last 12 days of March and the first 18 days of April, and adding in Belgium's fudge factors (Don't you love their chocolate?), I estimate that the EISN for April may be 45 to 50. This is not surprising and very typical. Again look at the solar minimum that took place in the early 1970s when there were huge fluctuations in sunspot numbers as that cycle hesitantly plunged into its solar minimum.
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Sunspot numbers.international-1700-2017 Apr.png
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Thu 20 April 2017 9:17 pm

Below is the 3 day plot showing the multiple solar flares from 2644 newly renamed 2651:

04-20-2017_Multiple flaring from Sunspot 2644 renamed  2651_goes-xray-flux.gif
04-20-2017_Multiple flaring from Sunspot 2644 renamed 2651_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.17 KiB) Viewed 26 times


Sunspot #2651 was a Beta-Gamma but recently declined to a Beta. Will it increase to a Beta-Gamma-Delta over the next few days or hours and give an impressive series of M-class or X-class solar flares? Stay tuned.

In the southern hemisphere, you can see returning and actively flaring sunspot 2645. Will it unleash some M-class solar flares this time around? About three weeks ago, it was very docile.

solar image_04-20-2017_2041 UT.jpg
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Postby Maria » Sat 22 April 2017 6:44 am

Both returning sunspots #2644 (renamed 2651) and #2645 (renamed 2653) have decayed substantially.
#2651 is now a Beta, while #2653 is an Alpha.

On the left rim of the sun's southern hemisphere Alpha #2653 is shown nicely flaring at B1 levels. Even though the radiation emitted is only at B levels, when out in the sunshine, one can feel intense burning rays and even get a sunburn as our magnetic shield is down considerably during this solar minimum.

That sunspots are decaying as they return from the far side of the sun is not surprising as we are now in a solar minimum. However, during a solar maximum, sometimes returning sunspots become even more active as they grow in size during their far side journey.
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solar image_04-22-2017_0612 UT.jpg
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